Online Monitoring Of Hand Foot And Mouth Disease Based On EWMA Control Chart

In the period beginning around 2007,hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)was widely spread in China,and public health in China was seriously threatened.In order to prevent the outbreak of infectious diseases such as hand,foot and mouth disease,an effective disease online system will be particularly helpful early.Statistical Process Control(SPC)charts are the main statistical tools in industrial quality control for timely monitoring of product defects.In recent years,control charts have been used for disease monitoring.However,compared with the data collected from industrial production lines,the disease online data usually has a more complex structure.The main challenges are lack of controlled data,complex seasonal effects and spatio-temporal correlation.These make the online monitoring of the data more difficultly.In this paper,we use the data of hand,foot and mouth disease collected from 2008 to 2009 in China,and the seasonality and time correlation of the data were removed,so that the data met the basic assumptions of the SPC chart and the adaptive EWMA control chart was monitored.The amount of drift is unknown.Under the traditional EWMA,if the parameters are not properly selected,the control chart will be invalid,and theadaptive EWMA can be solved well.For the provincial data that do not meet the basic assumptions of the SPC chart,we use the Mann-Whitney-EWMA control chart that does not require data distribution for online monitoring.The actual data shows that the proposed method can effectively monitor the spread of the disease before the outbreak of disease incidence.