Prediction Study Of Production Amount Of Typical Polymer Material Waste Catalyst

With the continuous development of China's economy and various industries in the past three decades,the demand for various downstream products of polyethylene resin is increasing day by day,and the problem of increasing scrap of polyethylene synthesis catalysts is widely concerned.The disposal of waste catalysts is a waste of resources on the one hand,and the heavy metals and hazardous substances in waste catalysts on the other hand can cause serious harm to human health and ecological environment.In this thesis,a prediction model was developed to predict the amount of polyethylene catalyst waste in China.Firstly,we collected and organized the production situation of polyethylene manufacturers in China by reviewing relevant literature and industry information,secondly,we established a Stanford prediction model to estimate and predict the end-of-life situation of polyethylene waste catalysts in China from 1990 to 2021 based on the usage of polyethylene catalysts,and finally,we established a time series ARIMA(2,2,0)prediction model to predict the end-of-life situation of polyethylene waste catalysts in China from 2022 to 2030.The quantitative study of polyethylene waste catalysts provides theoretical data reference for the scientific prevention and control of hazardous solid waste and the rational recycling of resources in China.The research content of this thesis is as follows.1.by collecting and collating the current situation of domestic polyethylene production,we found that China's polyethylene industry is developing rapidly,and the polyethylene production technology in China has been developing continuously in the past thirty years,gradually realizing the localization of core technology and making great progress in catalytic technology as well as production technology.the annual polyethylene production from 1990-2021 has been rising at an average annual growth rate of 12%,and the average annual growth rate of catalyst usage is 11.1%.2.According to Stanford forecasting model data,the cumulative scrap of polyethylene catalyst in China from 1990-2021 is 29434.64 tons,which is mainly due to the accelerated production of polyethylene due to the continuous increase in domestic demand for downstream products of polyethylene,which leads to the increase in the production of scrap catalyst.3.According to the prediction results of the time series ARIMA(2,2,0)model fitting,the amount of polyethylene catalyst scrap in China from 2022 to 2030 will continue to rise at an average annual growth rate of 6.6%,and the amount of polyethylene catalyst scrap generated is expected to reach 4268.65 tons in 2030.