Construction And Application Of System Dynamics Model Of Land Use Carbon Emissions In Shanxi Province

Global warming,as one of the serious problems facing the international society,poses a great threat to the human existence and the development of economic and society.So countries around the world have introduced policies to control carbon emissions in response to extreme climate change.China has also promised the world that China’s carbon dioxide emissions will reach a peak around 2030 and will continue to work hard to achieve the peak target as soon as possible.Because land carries various human production activities,changes of land use have become the second largest source of carbon dioxide emissions.In the context of the development of "low-carbon economy" in the world and the comprehensive construction of ecological civilization and beautiful China,Shanxi Province,as a nation with large carbon emissions,not only needs to seek a development path that can achieve economic sustainable development,but also reduce carbon emissions and reduce environment destruction and achieve low carbon land use.Therefore,this article first calculated the land use carbon emissions in Shanxi Province.Secondly built the SD model of land use carbon emissions in Shanxi Province and tested the validity of the model.Then analyzed the simulation results of the model.Finally,the model is simulated for seven different scenarios to find effective carbon emission reduction policy scenarios.Based on the simulation results,this paper proposes land use carbon emission reduction recommendations from five different subsystems that are in line with the actual development of Shanxi Province to provide policy reference for Shanxi Province to achieve low-carbon land use and achieve carbon emission reduction targets.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The overall trend of land use net carbon emissions in Shanxi Province declined from 2013 to 2017,but the decrease amplitude was relatively slow.And the overall trends of land use net carbon emissions are similar to carbon sources.The amount of carbon sinks is very small,and it has little effect on the goal of achieving carbon reduction.(2)The SD model of land use carbon emission in Shanxi Province is effective.From 2018 to 2030,the rising trend of net carbon emissions from land use in Shanxi Province will appear as "faster-slow",while the land use net carbon emissions per unit of GDP will continue to decline.In the future,Shanxi Province has great potential to achieve the peak carbon emission target around 2030.(3)High-speed economic development has led to an increase in land use carbon emissions.Adjusting population growth,adjusting the industrial structure,optimizing the energy structure,and optimizing the land use structure can effectively reduce carbon emissions,but compared with other scenarios,the comprehensive control scenario is best to reduce carbon emissions.(4)The suggestions for the economic subsystem are to adjust the industrial structure;increase funding for low-carbon development.The proposal for the population subsystem is to strictly control the rate of population growth.The suggestions for the land subsystem are to strengthen the protection of cultivated land and vigorously implement afforestation projects;strictly control the scale of construction land;and develop low-carbon land use technologies.The suggestions for the energy subsystem are to vigorously develop new energy sources;restrict the development of traditional energy sources;and promote energy-saving technologies.The recommendations for the environmental subsystem are to actively promote the low-carbon life of residents.