Temporal And Spatial Characteristics And Influencing Factors Of Land Use Carbon Emission In Shanxi Province

Dramatic changes in the global environment pose threats and challenges to the survival and development of the world’s people,among which the greenhouse effect is increasing and global warming is an important focus of world attention on environmental issues.High levels of carbon dioxide emissions are a key factor in exacerbating the greenhouse effect,and land,as a resource and an important carrier of human production and living activities,carries nearly all of the carbon emissions.China,as a party to the Paris Agreement,is proactively taking action to combat climate change and has set the strategic goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality".Shanxi Province is in a major transformation and development phase,and due to its geographical conditions and natural resource endowment,the transformation of its economic growth pattern and the path of low carbon development bring both opportunities and challenges.Based on the existing research on land use carbon emissions,117 counties in Shanxi Province were used as the study population in this study,and selects 2005,2010,2015 and 2020 as the research time points to study land use carbon emissions in Shanxi Province over the past 15 years.The study first describes the spatial and temporal changes in land use in Shanxi Province over the past 15 years,and then constructs an accounting model for land use carbon emissions in Shanxi Province by combining energy consumption data and socio-economic development data,and conducts a comprehensive analysis of the accounting results to reveal the spatiotemporal differentiations of land use carbon emissions in Shanxi Province over the past 15 years.The LMDI model is used to decompose the factors that have an impact on land use carbon emissions,and to analyze the effects and degree of variation of different influencing factors in both spatial and temporal dimensions,with a view to providing a scientific basis and reference for the formulation of regional differentiated land use carbon emission reduction measures in Shanxi Province.The main findings include.(1)The social and economic development of Shanxi Province and the characteristics of land use changes during the period 2005-2020 are analysed.The share of the secondary industry in Shanxi Province during the study period is on a decreasing trend,while the tertiary industry is developing rapidly,reaching a ratio of 5.4:43.4:51.2 in the structure of the three industries in Shanxi Province in 2020.In terms of land use change,Shanxi province has seen an active transition between different types of land and a significant expansion of land for urban development,whose area has increased by a total of 4,032.25km~2 in 15 years.Examination of the spatial distribution characteristics shows that the building land needed for expansion in Shanxi’s urban areas comes mainly from agricultural land,while the source of new building land in rural areas is mainly forest and grassland.(2)The characteristics of spatial and temporal differences in land use carbon emissions in Shanxi Province during the period 2005-2020 were elucidated.The total land use carbon emissions from land use in Shanxi Province continue to increase from60,880,700 tons in 2005 to 109,248,900 tons in 2020,but the growth rate is gradually changing and the general trend is a gradual slowdown in growth.Spatially,land use carbon emissions in Shanxi Province showed significant spatial autocorrelation during the study period,and there were high and low value clusters within the province,with the high value clusters mainly located around Taiyuan City and gradually expanding during the study period.Low-value agglomerations are more widely distributed in the northern part of Jin,and have narrowed in scope as the province’s land-use carbon emission levels have generally increased.(3)Uncovering the influencing factors of land-use carbon emissions and their spatial and temporal variation characteristics in Shanxi Province during the period of 2005-2020.The LMDI model was used to decompose the factors influencing carbon emissions,and it was found that the carbon intensity factor had a significantly better inhibiting effect on land use carbon emissions in the central and southern regions than in the northern region.Changes in the energy consumption intensity factor showed the most significant inhibiting effect on the growth of carbon emissions in the central region.The energy consumption intensity factor shows a general trend of effectively curbing and then slightly driving the growth of carbon emissions in the province.The expansion of construction land is an important factor driving the growth of carbon emissions.The change in economic efficiency of land use effectively suppresses the growth of carbon emissions,and the degree of negative effect in space shows the overall characteristic of central > southern > northern Shanxi Province.The level of economic development is gradually increasing its role in driving the growth of carbon emissions in Shanxi.The degree of influence of the population size factor on carbon emission changes is generally weak,influenced by the overall population loss in Shanxi Province,except for the provincial capital city Taiyuan and the urban area of some prefecture-level cities which show positive effects,the results of the population size effect in all other regions are negative.The optimized countermeasures for land use carbon emission reduction in Shanxi Province are proposed.Combining the results of land use carbon emission accounting and analysis of the influencing factors,we propose optimisation measures in terms of land use,industrial structure and development technology,with a view to formulating differentiated management measures tailored to local conditions,helping Shanxi Province to build a low-carbon land use pattern,meet the 14 th Five-Year Plan targets and strive to successfully and early complete the task of " peak carbon dioxide emissions".