Study On Carbon Emission Simulation And Low-Carbon Spatial Planning Strategy Of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration

In recent years,the increase in carbon dioxide concentration caused by human activities has become the main cause of global warming.“Lowcarbon cities” have gradually become the focus of current social concern,and research on carbon peaks and the formulation of low-carbon spatial plans are the basis for the realization of “low-carbon cities”.This thesis takes the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration as an example,used a system dynamics model to dynamically simulate its carbon emissions,simulates the peak of carbon emissions,and proposes a low-carbon space planning strategy for the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration through optimal path research.It mainly involves the following research contents:First,build the overall research framework of “carbon emission measurement – simulation – peak prediction – planning strategy”.Use night light data and IPCC measurement methods to calculate and analyze the carbon emissions,per capita carbon emissions,per land carbon emissions,carbon emissions intensity and other indicators in the three cities of Chang-Zhu-Tan,and calculate and analyze the carbon emissions of the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration.Based on the system dynamics software Vensim-PLE,combing the internal and interrelationships of various subsystems,the construction of the causal loop diagram of carbon emissions in Changsha,Zhuzhou and Xiangtan,and finally the construction of a simulation model for carbon emissions and the effectiveness of the simulation model Inspection and dynamic initial simulation of carbon emissions in Changsha,Zhuzhou and Xiangtan.Secondly,based on the construction of a carbon emission simulation model,six different growth scenarios were set by adjusting a single parameter to obtain different carbon emission growth simulation plans for the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration,and a composite dynamic simulation was carried out for each plan simulation.Three comprehensive control scenarios were set up,and optimized comparative analysis was carried out at the same time to explore the growth trend of carbon emissions and the peak of carbon emissions under different simulation scenarios.It was concluded that Changsha City and Zhuzhou City would reach the carbon peak in 2025.Xiangtan City The optimal development path to reach the carbon peak in 2028.Finally,through the results of the optimal development path of carbon peaks in the carbon emission simulation model,combining the peak carbon emissions of the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration from the perspectives of the functional layout of the urban agglomeration,the development of the urban agglomeration industry,the transportation development of the urban agglomeration,and the ecological environment of the urban agglomeration.Analyze the influencing factors carried by carbon emissions,discuss the spatial layout of urban agglomerations,study the spatial planning strategy under the carbon peak scenario,and finally discuss the low-carbon spatial planning of the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration based on the construction of Chang-Zhu-Tan.Implementation and recommendations.