Study On Health Effect Of PM_2.5 And O₃ Air Pollution And Its Response To Em Ission Reduction Of Air Pollutants In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

With the implementation of various emission control measures in recent years,PM2.5 levels in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region dramatically decreased during 2013-2018,while the O3 concentration increased considerably.Therefore,it is of great significance to assess the positive/negative health effects of PM2.5/O3 exposure comprehensively.The health impact function(HIF)is applied to explore the variation of health effects of long-and short-term exposure to PM2 5 and O3 in the BTH region,and its response to emission reduction.Firstly,the characteristics of PM2.5 and O3 concentrations and the related premature death are analyzed on the basis of the monitoring sites’ data during 2013-2018 in BTH.The results show that the PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 48.01%,whereas O3 concentrations increase by 30.79%during the five years.And the number of avoidable premature deaths attributed to PM2.5 reduction(short-term:12252;Long-term:7935)is larger than the level of increased premature deaths related to increasing O3(short-term:3000;Long-term:7638).What’s more,the annual concentration of PM2 5 decreased rapidly,but the decline rate of premature deaths attribute to long-term PM2.5 exposure(6.25%)was far less than that of short-term exposure(64.49%),indicating that short-term emergency measures had a significant effect on improving the health benefit of PM2.5 pollution.In addition,we design three scenarios,emission reduction of 20%,50%and maximum mitigation potential of each pollutant,to assess the response of PM2.5 and O3 concentration and the premature death related to pollutants exposure.The air quality model WRF-CMAQ is used to simulate the concentrations of pollutants in 2018.The simulation results indicate that concentration of PM2 5 tends to have a stronger response to the emission reduction of air pollutants,and as the reduction ratio gradually increases,PM2.5 concentration continues to decrease.Compared to the baseline scenario,the concentration of PM2.5 in three scenarios decreases by 12.08%,30.88%and 54.58%,respectively.However,the O3 concentration in July decreases only by 2.04%,6.58%and 3.18%in three scenarios,respectively.Compared with the base scenario,the number of premature deaths attributable to PM2.5 short-term exposure in January in the three scenarios decrease by 21.45%,52.12%and 80.32%,respectively,while the premature death related to O3 exposure in July decrease 2.59%,10.02%and 3.68%,respectively.The avoidable healthy economic loss of the overall premature death in the three scenarios are 257 million yuan,671 million yuan and 902 million yuan,respectively.Conclusively,the reasonable emission reduction can not only significantly reduce the health burden of human,but also bring economic benefits.It is necessary to strengthen the control of ozone in the future.