Researsh On Safety Risk Assessment Of The Expressway Transportation Of Hazardous Materials Based On BN-bow-tie Model

As a big industrial country,China has huge demand for the transportation of hazardous materials,and expressway transportation is the main way about it.There are many types of hazardous materials with complex physical and chemical properties,and most of them are flammable,explosive and toxic.It is not uncommon to see accidents occurring in the process of expressway transportation,resulting in leaks,fires,explosions and other accidents that endanger human health and environmental pollution.In this context,how to identify possible risk factors in the process of dangerous goods expressway transportation,so as to achieve dynamic real-time assessment of accident probability,and provide graphical risk consequence evaluation to build a complete risk assessment framework for dangerous goods expressway transportation safety It has important practical significance and value to the safety management of relevant departments and enterprises.In this paper,a set of risk assessment system including risk identification,accident probability assessment and accident consequence assessment for the expressway the transportation of hazardous materials.Firstly,according to the collection and statistics of the accident data of dangerous goods expressway transportation in recent years,analyze the accident characteristics and identify the risk factors of the accident location,time,result,grade and cause.Then,the BN-bow-tie model is introduced to conduct qualitative and quantitative analysis on the expressway the transportation of hazardous materials,and the bow-tie graph model is used to complete the extraction of risk factors and the analysis of possible consequences of accidents in the case of dangerous expressway transportation accidents;Converted into a Bayesian network structure,the Bayesian network parameters are determined through the input of real data and the fuzzy judgment method considering the weight of experts,and the dynamic probability assessment of the risk of dangerous goods expressway transportation is realized.Then,the method for determining the scope of accident impact is given,and an accident consequence assessment model considering risk exposure time is constructed.The general calculation method of the accident scope of dangerous goods expressway transportation is given,and the graphical analysis of the determination of the accident consequence scope is realized through the application of ALOHA software and Google Earth software.Finally,this paper selects some sections of the G5 Jingkun Expressway in the direction of Miancheng to conduct a case study on the risk of dangerous goods expressway transportation,realizes the dynamic accident probability assessment and accident consequence evaluation for the proposed accident scenario,summarizes the risk occurrence law,and provides information for the expressway the transportation of hazardous materials.The relevant departments and enterprise security risk assessment provide theoretical reference and practical basis.