Detection Of Air Pollution Sources And Pollution Radiation Intensity In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based On Nonlinear Intensity Poisson Regression Analysis

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is currently the most severely smog area in China.Under the background of the coordinated development of the Beijing-TianjinHebei region,it is crucial to explore the source of air pollution in this region.The existing researches on air quality in China focus mainly on the exploration of air pollution influencing factors and the prediction of future air quality.There is a paucity of literature on the problems that explore the impact of various heavy industrial factories on local air quality and quantify the degree of impact through modeling.Based on a Poisson regression model with nonlinear intensity,it is investigated how the different types of industrial pollution sources affect the local air quality in the BeijingTianjin-Hebei region.By the aid of the estimated parameters,some management suggestions on industrial pollution factories are proposed,which can be referenced by local governments in the environmental protection decision-making process.First,a descriptive statistical analysis of the air quality data in Beijing-TianjinHebei region in 2019 is conducted.It shows that:(1)The five cities with the most serious air pollution in the region are: Handan,Xingtai,Shijiazhuang,Baoding,and Tangshan.The air quality in Zhangjiakou and Chengde is relatively good;(2)PM2.5is the main pollutant of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The daily trend analysis of AQI and PM2.5 further illustrates the high correlation between PM2.5 and AQI in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region;(3)The air quality in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has obvious seasonal differences.The air pollution in spring and winter is more serious than in summer and autumn.Among the three regions,Hebei Province has the strongest seasonality of PM2.5 pollution,and the seasonality is relatively weakest in Beijing.PM2.5 pollution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has obvious spatial correlation.Then,a non-linear intensity Poisson regression model containing the radiation effect of factory pollution is established,which quantitatively analyzes the pollution radiation power of different types of factories.If the ordinary Poisson regression model is used to explore the problems,the regression coefficients of the model can only explain the pollution radiation power of each industrial,but the pollution radiation power of a certain type of industrial cannot be quantified.Through statistical analysis of the model,the values of parameter are been estimated.The following conclusions are obtained by analyzing the parameter values:(1)α shows that steel plants and paper mills have the greatest impact on the air quality in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2019,followed by metal manufacturing plants and plastic products plants.Chemical plants,cement plants,and printing plants have relatively weak impact on the air quality in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.(2)β measures the difference in the degree of impact of the same type of pollution source on air quality.The results show that the pollution radiation of the same type of industrial pollution source will vary with the scale of the factory.In summary,this paper establishes a nonlinear Poisson regression model to detect the pollution radiation power of different types of industrial pollution sources in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,ranks the pollution radiation power of seven types of industrial pollution sources.Then the targeted suggestions on local air pollution control are put forward based on the estimated values of the parameters of the model,which can be referred by local air pollution control departments.