The Effect Reassessment Of Economic Development On CO₂ Emissions

At present,global warming has become a worldwide problem,which needs to be faced by all countries.As the main component of greenhouse gases,CO₂ plays a major role in promoting global warming.Therefore,it is urgent to reduce CO₂ emissions.As a responsible big country,China has put forward many measures for energy saving and emission reduction.What is the specific effect of these measures?Has China reached the inflection point of Kuznets Curve of CO₂ emissions?In order to solve this problem,this paper uses partially linear model to investigate the effect of China’s economic development on CO₂ emissions.However,the results are quite different from the reality in China.Further test shows that the errors in model are not independent and identically distributed,but autocorrelated.At present,most of researches on common models assume that the errors are independent and identically distributed.Ignoring the autocorrelation of the errors will make the parameter estimator of the model no longer unbiased and effective,and make the hypothesis test invalid,which will lead to large deviation of the results,and then limit the practical application of the model.At present,the research on the model with dependent errors is not perfect and needs to be supplemented.Therefore,this paper studies the partially linear model with autoregressive errors and its application to the effect analysis of economic development on CO₂ emissions.Firstly,the two-step procedure and the profile empirical likelihood statistics are proposed.The large sample properties of the two-step estimator are given,and the distribution of the profile empirical likelihood statistics is derived.Then,the two-step procedure and the profile empirical likelihood statistics are simulated.The results show that they all have good finite sample properties.Finally,the effect of China’s economic development on CO₂ emissions is analyzed based on the partially linear model.The outcomes indicate that it is necessary to consider the correlation of errors in the process of statistical inference and at present,China’s economic development level has reached the top of the inverted"U-shaped"pattern.Energy saving and emission reduction work has a very significant effect.The partially linear model with autoregressive errors is closer to reality and more explanatory in practical application.However,there are few researches on this model,and there is no research to make use of the information contained in the errors in the statistical inference of this model.This paper makes a deep discussion on this,which improves the deficiency of the existing theoretical research.In addition,the two-step procedure will make up for the shortcomings of the existing estimation methods,and the proposed empirical likelihood statistics will further enrich the existing hypothesis test methods.At present,no scholars pay attention to whether the errors of the model are independent when they study the effect of economic development on CO₂ emissions.In this paper,the partially linear model with autoregressive errors is used to consider this,and the specific effect of energy conservation and emission reduction work is measured,which is significant in application.In addition,this paper also briefly analyzes the effect of energy consumption,industrial upgrading,and technology diffusion on CO₂ emissions,which provides a certain reference for China to formulate and improve the relevant measures energy saving and emission reduction in order to achieve the established CO₂ reduction goals.Below is the concrete chapters arrangement.Chapter 1 is Introduction.This chapter mainly clarifies the research background and significance,research status at home and abroad,research ideas and framework,as well as innovation and difficulties.Chapter 2 is Prior Knowledge.This chapter mainly introduce the theoretical knowledge of autoregressive model,partially linear model,statistical inference,kernel estimation method,empirical likelihood method,and the influencing factors of CO₂emissions involved in the research process of this paper,which lays the foundation for the follow-up research.Chapter 3 is Parameter Estimation for Partially Linear Model with Autoregressive Errors.In this chapter,we first give the partially linear model with autoregressive errors,then propose a two-step procedure,and prove the consistency and asymptotic normality of the two-step estimator.Finally,we conduct stochastic numerical simulations for the two-step procedure to investigate its finite sample properties.Chapter 4 is Hypothesis Test for Partially Linear Model with Autoregressive Errors.For the partially linear model with autoregressive errors,the profile empirical likelihood statistic is constructed by using the empirical likelihood method,and its asymptotic distribution is derived.Then the stochastic numerical simulations are carried out to examine its performance.Chapter 5 is an Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Economic Development on CO₂Emissions.Based on the partially linear model with autoregressive errors,this chapter investigates the effect of China’s economic development on CO₂ emissions,and uses two-step procedure to estimate the parameters,and uses the profile empirical likelihood statistics to make a hypothesis test,so as to illustrate their practical application and measure the specific effect of energy saving and emission reduction work.Chapter 6 is Conclusions and Limits.This chapter mainly summarizes the previous research content,explains the shortcomings of this paper,and puts forward the improvement direction for the new problems found in the process of research in order to follow-up research.