Allocation Of Initial Carbon Emission Quotas In Chinese Provinces Based On Equality And Efficiency Principles

With the continuous advance of industrialization,China is facing great pressure to reduce CO₂ emissions.Carbon emission trading（CET）mechanism is an effective measure to mediate the contradiction between carbon emissions and economic growth,while a reasonable and effective initial quota allocation method is of vital importance to establishing the CET mechanism.Due to the obvious differences among Chinese provinces in terms of population size,historical emissions,industrial structure and so on,the allocation of quotas should follow the principle of"common but differentiated responsibilities".Based on the above background,this paper calculated and analyzed the present situation of each province’s CO₂ emissions in China,then summarized previous studies and established a fair and effective CO₂ emission allocation model.Last,this paper proposed an empirical analysis,aiming at inspiring local governments to explore low-carbon development path and contributing to the realization of national emission reduction target.The main contents of the paper are as follows:（1）The amount of CO₂ emissions of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2016 was calculated,and the non-radial distance function based on Kuosmanen technology was used to measure the emission efficiency of each province in 2016.In addition,the Gini coefficient and Thiel index were introduced to measure the equity of provincial emissions.（2）Based on the combination of equity and efficiency principles,this paper compared and analyzed the existing allocation principles and finally selected three of them,namely,egalitarianism,historical responsibility and efficiency principles.Then,applying the maximum deviation method,a two-stage CO₂ quota allocation model was constructed.（3）China’s total CO₂ emission quotas was calculated according to the 60%reduction target in carbon intensity,then allocation results,including these under single principles and the comprehensive one,were further compared and analyzed.The results showed that the amount of China’s CO₂ emissions increased year by year before 2012 and then leveled off,while presenting obvious regional characteristics.The comprehensive allocation model based on the maximum deviation method gives better consideration to both equity and efficiency principles.According to the comprehensive allocation results,Jiangsu,Guangdong and Shandong will be allocated the largest quotas,while Hainan and Qinghai will be allocated the least.In the future,Inner Mongolia,Xinjiang and Hebei will bear the heaviest CO₂ emission reduction pressure.