As one of the largest carbon emitters in the world,China takes carbon emission trading as an important measure in its national energy conservation and emission reduction strategy.Scientific and reasonable allocation of carbon emission rights of provinces is the core issue of carbon emission rights trading.It is also the key to China’s goal of reducing emissions.This paper analyzes the influencing factors of carbon dioxide emission change caused by energy consumption in 30 provinces in Chinese mainland.Firstly,the logarithmic mean decomposition index(LMDI)technology is adopted to decompose the change of provincial carbon emission into five effects: carbon coefficient,energy structure,energy intensity,economic output and population scale effect.Next,based on the results of LMDI decomposition,the overall contribution of each decomposition factor was calculated and applied to the allocation of carbon emission allowances for more than 30 provinces in China in 2020.The overall effect of economic output,population size effect and energy structure on carbon emissions is positive,while the overall effect of energy intensity is negative.The allocation of carbon emission quotas helps policy makers to reconsider emission reduction targets and related policies.This paper studies how to initially allocate the total carbon emission rights in China from the perspective of balancing the two principles of fairness and efficiency.In terms of the principle of equity,the principle of historical average,the principle of population average and the principle of average capacity to pay are compared and analyzed,and the principle of average distribution of capacity to pay is chosen to be introduced into the principle of comprehensive distribution.In terms of efficiency principle,the zero-sum DEA model is used to determine the initial quota allocation scheme when regional efficiency is maximized.Finally,through the entropy method,the fair principle and the efficiency principle are coupled to form the comprehensive quota allocation scheme.The results show that the provinces with higher input-output efficiency get more quotas.The research results of this paper are of great significance for the establishment of a fair and effective initial carbon quota allocation mechanism,the realization of the national total carbon emission control goal,and the promotion of high-quality development in China. |