Optimization Research On Quantitative Evaluation Of Value For Money Of Garbage Disposal PPP Project In T City

With the development of China’s economy,the expansion of city-size and population and the increase of municipal solid waste municipal solid waste,a series of problems,which affect human survival and restrict economic development,are gradually emerging,such as soil,water and ecological pollution caused by heaping garbage.However,the local financial revenue in China is too small to implement a large number of garbage development projects in a short time.In order to provide garbage disposal services as soon as possible,the Chinese government has issued a number of policies to encourage social capital to participate in the field of garbage disposal.However,there are many ways for the government to build infrastructure.Therefore,when the government chooses the way of infrastructure construction,it should not only rely on policy support and government preference,but also use quantifiable and scientific methods to judge,which called value for money.Based on in-depth understanding of the developing status of PPP and quantitative evaluation of value for money at home and abroad,combined with the characteristics of garbage disposal PPP projects,this thesis proposes some improved methods for the problems of quantitative evaluation of value for money,and then builds a model for quantitative evaluation of value for money of garbage disposal PPP projects.Finally,this thesis applies the model to the Garbage Disposal PPP Project in T city to verify the validity and applicability of the model.This thesis mainly analyzes the discount rate and risk quantification in the model for quantitative evaluation of value for money.In the aspect of discount rate determination,based on the analysis of the common methods to determine the discount rate and the characteristics of garbage disposal PPP projects,this thesis uses the CAPM model to determine the discount rate.The risk-free interest rate in the CAPM model selects the 10-year Treasury bonds yield,the expected market return selects the average yield of garbage disposal PPP projects in PPP management library of ministry of Ministry of Finance,the beta selects monthly beta coefficient of PPP concept stock.Finally,this thesis considers the inflation factor to determine the discount rate.In terms of risk quantification,on the basis of adequate identification and analysis of risk factors,the trapezoidal fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and concentrated numeric statistic method are used to estimate risk loss and risk probability respectively.In addition,according to the principle of risk sharing,this thesis identifies the risk-bearers,as for the shared risks,the analytic hierarchy process-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to determine the sharing ratio.This research has improved the quantitative evaluation model of value for money for garbage disposal projects from the two aspects of optimizing the method of determining the discount rate and improving accuracy of risk quantification.In addition,this research is not only an effective supplement to the current quantitative evaluation of value for money in China,but also provides a scientific and quantizable decision-making bases for whether to adopt PPP mode in China’s garbage disposal projects.