Study On Carbon Emissions And Influencing Factors Of Industrial Sectors In Southern China

The southern region is an important region for industrial carbon emissions in China.In 2017,industrial energy consumption in Southern China accounted for 57%of the national industrial energy consumption,and carbon emissions accounted for45%.The southern region needs to implement effective energy conservation and emission reduction policies to reduce industrial energy consumption and achieve the goal of carbon emission reduction.This article studies the industrial carbon emissions and influencing factors in Southern China,where the industrial industry is developed.This paper first predicts the output of high-carbon emission industrial products,which are cement,steel and synthetic ammonia,in 15 provinces and municipalities in the southern region based on the gray model and BP neural network model.Secondly,based on the LMDI model,the factors influencing industrial carbon emissions are decomposed.This paper chooses energy emission intensity,energy structure,energy intensity,output scale and population scale as the influencing factors.The main research results of this article are as follows: The output of cement and steel in provinces and municipalities in Southern China will increase or maintain a steady trend as a whole in 2020.Compared with the previous years,the overall changes in cement and steel production are small,and the output of synthetic ammonia has a further downward trend;The factors which promote industrial carbon emissions in the southern region are the output scale and the population size,the energy intensity is the restraining effect.The effect of energy structure is fluctuating,and the inhibitory effect on carbon emissions is increasing year by year;The order of impact of various influencing factors on industrial carbon emissions from large to small is output scale,energy intensity,population size and energy structure.Finally,on the basis of the above analysis,suggestions for industrial energy saving and emission reduction policies in the southern region are put forward,which is helpful to provide a reference for the low-carbon development strategy of the industrial sector in the region.