| Online public opinion has strong two sides.On the one hand,it can promote the development and progress of the entire social economy and culture to a certain extent.On the other hand,the wide spread cf rumors or extreme remarks will affect the normal order of society.Once the public opinion information is not captured and processed in the first time,and the best period of public opinion intervention is missed,it will lead to the generation of negative online public opinion,resulting in uncontrollable consequences such as rampant rumors,social panic,and secondary invisible risks.Early warning is the first line of defense for Internet public opinion governance.By establishing a scientific and reasonable network public opinion early warning mechanism,it can promote the precision,efficiency and scientificization of public opinion early warning work,scientifically predict the development trend of public opinion.Then it can find out signs of problems as soon as possible,and effectively guide the development of public opinion.In the context of emergent natural disasters,by establishing a more reasonable early warning mechanism,to provide policy advice for the government’s ability to prevent and control natural disasters,so as to reduce the adverse social impact of online public opinion.First of all,it reviews and sorts out the relevant literature on emergent natural disasters,online public opinion and early warning mechanism research,defines the meaning of the related concepts of online public opinion early warning and its mechanism,and clarifies the applicability and significance of theoretical foundation.Secondly,based on the basic public opinion of the "7·20 Rainstorm in Henan Province" incident,it analyzes the characteristics of the online public opinion dissemination of this event and the current situation of the government’s governance in the early warning of online public opinion.Then,it points out the importanceof the forward-looking governance in the disposal of online public opinion in natural disaster events,so it is a realistic foundation for the establishment of the mechanism.Then,using the Delphi method to screen the preliminarily established early warning indicators,through the analysis of the results of multiple rounds of expert consultation,and the indicators that do not meet the requirements are eliminated to form relatively reasonable and scientific early warning indicators.Then,using AHP method to weigh the early warning indicators.Finally,it uses Python to crawl the required data and uses the system dynamics software Vensim to simulate the "7·20 Rainstorm in Henan Province" event,and the established model of the network public opinion early warning mechanism is tested.From the perspective of subsystems and different stages of public opinion,systematically analyze the impact of various factors on public opinion early warning,and lay a more scientific foundation for the early warning mechanism.On this basis,through the analysis of the actual predicament and the results of the simulation experiment,the online public opinion elements such as the government,the media,and netizens are taken into account in the mechanism.And an early warning mechanism is formed under the government-led and multi-subject co-governance model to control online public opinion.In addition,information collection,indicator system,alarm system,and disposal plan are integrated into the basic framework of the early warning mechanism,and a set of "collection-research-judgment-alert-pre-control" emergencies is established that takes into account comprehensive judgment and staged disposal.The natural disaster online public opinion early warning mechanism aims to prevent and reduce the damage caused by the network public opinion of sudden natural disaster events to the greatest extent. |
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