Characteristics Of Black Carbon And Its Health Benefits Assessment In Northeast China

With the development of industrialization and urbanization,the air pollution has become more and more serious,which has an increasingly serious impact on human health and social economy.Among the economic benefits brought by environmental improvement,health benefits account for the largest proportion.The health effect of air pollution has become attention hotspot for international society since 1950s.Epidemiological studies have shown that among atmospheric pollutants,the adverse effects of atmospheric particles on population health are among the most serious,and smaller particles have stronger effects.Black carbon(BC)is one of the main components of atmospheric particles.Long term exposure to BC may increase the risk of death in patients with diseases.Firstly,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of BC concentration in six cities(Shenyang,Changchun,Fushun,Benxi,Anshan,Dalian)and one background station(Longfengshan,the regional atmospheric background station of Heilongjiang province)in Northeast China from2007 to 2016 were analyzed.Then,to quantitatively analyze the health effects of BC,a semi-parametric generalized additive model of time-series study was used to calculate the exposure-response relationship between BC and disease mortality in Shenyang and Changchun.Lastly,we used Ben MAP-CE model to assess human health effects and its corresponding economic value caused by BC mass concentration variation in major cities in Northeast China from 2010 to 2016.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)BC concentration ranged from(2.43±0.80)to(7.09±1.42)μg/m~3between2007 and 2017.The background concentrations of BC at Longfengshan site was minimum.It was found that the BC pollution at CC site was much higher than other sites.The BC concentrations at both sites were following the seasonal variation with higher concentrations in autumn and winter than that in the other seasons,which highest in December and January and the lowest in June and July ranging from(0.900.32)to(9.40 3.79)ug/m~3.A distinct diurnal pattern of BC concentrations with two peaks was observed at both sites,which the two peaks were observed during morning between 7:00 and 9:00 BLT and in the evening around 19:00-21:00 BLT,and the lowest value was observed at 14:00-15:00 BLT in the afternoon.(2)A semi-parametric generalized additive model(GAM)was used to analyze the exposure-effect relationship between BC and disease mortality.The results showed that the change trend of excess risk(ER)caused by the BC concentration on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was consistent.BC had a lag effect on disease mortality.With the largest correlation coefficient of 3-days lags(avg02)and4-days lags(avg03),BC had a significantly positively correlative with disease mortality.Under the optimal lagging time,the ER%of daily all-cause deaths,cardiovascular mortality and respiratory mortality were increased by 1.01%(95%CI:0.70,1.28),1.12%(95%CI:0.70,1.50)and 0.68%(95%CI:-0.31,1.65)in Changchun,and increased by 0.82%(95%CI:0.50,1.13),0.78%(95%CI:0.34,1.20)and 1.72%(95%CI:0.61,2.78)in Shenyang when BC concentration increased 1μg/m~3.Compared with the gender subgroups exerted a greater effect on the female population.Seasonal analysis showed BC significantly increased cardiovascular mortality and respiratory mortality during the warm season.(3)Based on the the health exposure response coefficient,population and economic data,the BC-Ben MAP-CE localization model was established to evaluate the health impact and economic benefits of black carbon in Northeast China.The results showed that the greatest impact on economic loss was all-cause loss.Shenyang and Changchun were the most affected about health effect and economic benefit.The comparison of health effects and economic benefit before and after 2013(Air Pollution Prevention and Control Plan has been launched,Action Plan),the annual mean value of BC concentration has improved significantly which the healthy economic increased in the later period of emission reduction.The long-term emission reduction measures of China have positive health impact on all-cause diseases and cardiovascular system diseases of local residents.It is beneficial to control the economic loss of human health caused by excessive death of BC pollution.