| As the urbanization level increases,human activities have led to rapid changes in land-use patterns,and the capacity of the Ecosystem to serve human beings has decreased,with a consequent decrease in Ecosystem Services Value（ESV）.Jinan develops rapidly in the urbanization process,especially in the recent administrative division merger with the former Laiwu,resulting in great changes in land use and ecosystem pattern..A comprehensive understanding of land use and ESV changes in the history and future of Jinan can provide an important reference for the formulation of land use and ecological protection policies in Jinan.This paper takes the latest administrative area of Jinan as the research object,and firstly decodes the land use information of the study area from 2000 to 2021 to explore the spatial and temporal changes in land use in Jinan.Then,the ESV evaluation model is modified according to the actual situation in Jinan,and the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of ESV in Jinan are analyzed according to the evaluation results.Finally,based on exploring the correlation between land use and ESV,the land-use change of Various scenarios in Jinan in 2025 is simulated,and the quantity change and spatial distribution of ESV under different predicted scenarios are analyzed.The research results are as follows:（1）From 2000 to 2021,the land use structure of Jinan kept stable.The area of construction land increased the most and changed the most with the dynamic attitude of 3.63%,while the area of cultivated land,grassland,and unused land decreased year by year.In addition,the area of forest land increased,while the area of water area kept stable.The dynamic attitude of land use shows a trend of first increasing,then decreasing,and then increasing.The degree of land use shows a trend of gradual increase,especially after the adjustment of administrative divisions,the overall degree of land use increased rapidly.The degree of land use has significant spatial aggregation,and the distribution of cold spots and hot spots of land use degree is more concentrated due to the widening gap between urban and rural areas.（2）From 2000 to 2021,the ESV of Jinan decreased from 32.189 billion yuan to 26.403 billion yuan,and the value of climate regulation was the highest among individual services,fluctuating between 6.471-6.787 billion yuan;The ESV of per unit area of land in the former Laiwu is relatively high.The integration of administrative divisions effectively alleviates the pressure on ecological environment protection in Jinan.The aggregation of ESV in Jinan showed a trend of gradually increasing,with high concentration areas mainly distributed in the coastal areas of the Yellow River and reservoirs and wetlands,and low concentration areas mainly distributed in urban built-up areas.（3）From 2000 to 2021,the absolute value of the correlation coefficient between land use degree and ESV in Jinan City is above 0.798,showing a significant negative correlation.In the natural development scenario,the change in land use continued the previous trend.In the ecological protection scenario,the rapid growth of construction land has been brought under control.In the water-saving and spring conservation scenario,the water area increased greatly;Under the natural development scenario,ESV in the north,east,and west of the central urban area decreased,while ESV in the south increased.Under the ecological protection scenario,ESV remained stable on the whole;under the water-saving and spring protection scenario,ESV level increased,especially in the water area,but ESV in the north,east,and west of the central urban area still decreased. |
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