Land Use Carbon Emissions And Simulation Prediction In Guiyang Under The Background Of Low-carbon Economy

Guiyang is a karst mountain city in western China and a national ecological civilization demonstration city.With the development of industrialization,Guiyang promotes economic growth and the improvement of urbanization level,but also brings severe pressure of carbon emission to land use.Therefore,it is inevitable to calculate the carbon emission of land use in order to realize the low-carbon development of land use.First of all,this study of low carbon economy and elaborates the connotation of land use on carbon emissions,combining with the situation of the Guiyang city based on 3 s technology,in 2005,2010,2015,2020,visual interpreting of remote sensing image,using a single land use dynamic degree and land use transfer matrix method,geological information on 15 years of Guiyang land dynamic change and situations are analyzed.On this basis,the LMDI factor decomposition model was used to analyze the factors affecting the land use carbon emission in Guiyang City.Finally,the dynamic model of land use carbon emission system was built according to the main influencing factors to predict the development trend of land use carbon emission in Guiyang City from 2020 to 2035.And put forward the countermeasures and suggestions to promote the development of low carbon economy in Guiyang.The results show that:(1)According to the interpretation and analysis of remote sensing images,the grassland area decreased the most among the land use types from 2005 to 2020,and the construction land increased by 376.95km~2.The CA-Markov model is used to predict the trend of land use change from 2020 to 2035.The prediction results show that in 2035,the area of cultivated land,woodland,grassland,water area,construction land and unused land will be 2776.82km~2,3339.20km~2,528.12km~2,96.05km~2,891.03km~2and 412.17km~2,respectively.(2)Carbon in different land use types measure,measure of Guiyang city in2005-2020,carbon emissions and carbon uptake,and the calculation of land use in2005-2020,Guiyang carbon emissions growth,carbon uptake and carbon intensity is on the decline,and using LMDI model of population,economic development,land use structure and land use efficiency decomposition analysis,the analysis results show that the economic development are the main factors affecting carbon emissions,and to enhance the efficiency of land use can reduce carbon emissions.(3)According to the modeling steps of the system dynamics model,the causal relationship and system equation of various variables in the land use carbon emission system of Guiyang City are obtained,and the controllable factors that have influence on the land use carbon emission of Guiyang City are selected for different state combination to form a variety of schemes,which are compared and analyzed with the basic schemes.By comparing different schemes,it is shown that the rapid economic growth will have a significant impact on carbon emissions in the next few years.(4)Combined with research and analysis results,and puts forward the optimization of industrial structure,Guiyang transformation of the mode of economic development,control population growth,improve population quality,and strengthening the protection of forest land,promote green development,improve the efficiency of land use,promotion of economical and intensive utilization of land,into the low carbon assessment indicators,improve the land carbon sink capacity,such as implementation of land use of low carbon development countermeasures and Suggestions.