Study On Maintenance Risk Assessment Based On Unsafe Information Data

As the cornerstone and important guarantee for the stable development of civil aviation transportation,the safe operation of maintenance organization affects the operation and survival of airlines,airports and other organizations,as well as the healthy development of the entire civil aviation industry.At present,the risk assessment methods commonly used by maintenance organizations mainly rely on the knowledge and work experience of experts which are too subjective,and it is difficult to accurately assess the risk difference between hazard sources at the same risk level.The risk assessment method based on the experts’ scores is difficult to effectively combine risk management and the unsafe information obtained by the company’s daily inspection and reporting.Therefore,how to construct a civil aviation maintenance risk analysis and assessment method based on the unsafe information data collected by the organization is an urgent task at present.Through the analysis of the maintenance work and unsafe information data of A maintenance organization,7 work systems are determined including engineering technology,planning and control,maintenance production,aviation material management,production assurance,qualification and training,safety and quality.And main tasks in each working system are also determined.Based on the analysis of various tasks,130 hazard sources in the civil aviation maintenance system are identified,including defects in the formulation of maintenance/troubleshooting plans,to form a list of hazard sources,which facilitates the targeted departmental risk management of each business department of the maintenance organization.Based on unsafe information data,establish the association between unsafe information data and the list of hazards,as well as the association between hazard sources and consequences,to form a list of consequences including 32 consequences,such as cabin pressure loss;and use the knowledge of probability theory and mathematical statistics to quantify the possibility of risks and the severity of consequences,and then to build a risk assessment model for hazard sources in the maintenance system,which have determined the risk assessment methods when the hazards sources cause various types of consequences,and accurately assessed the risk of each hazard source in the maintenance system.On the basis of previous work,based on the complexity and uncertainty of the comprehensive assessment of maintenance risk,the entropy weight method and the weighted least square method are used to determine the weight of each indicator,and use set pair analysis to construct a comprehensive assessment model of maintenance risk.Finally,the risk assessment model is used to evaluate the risk of A.The results shows that it provides risk control strategy for A,and verifies the applicability and effectiveness of the maintenance risk assessment model based on unsafe information data.