Research On The Default Risk Of Coal Enterprise Bonds Under The Background Of Economic Transformation

In 2016,China put forward the task of "cutting overcapacity and deleveraging" and the proposal of the "dual carbon" goal in 2020.China’s coal industry has ushered in a critical period of economic transformation.Many coal companies have fallen into industrial crisis due to external pressure and internal management problems.Considering the current performance of the coal industry in the bond market,under the historical background of overcapacity and over-investment,coal company bond defaults and short-term liquidity risks are generally high.Many state-owned and highly rated companies also defaulted,causing a huge shock to the market.In this context,there is no default risk identification model with good early warning effect in the credit rating market to deal with this wave of defaults,so it is worthy of in-depth research in the academic field.This paper selects Yongmei Group as the research object,and deeply discusses the bond default risk of coal enterprises under the background of transformation through case analysis and comparative analysis.It mainly studies two aspects:(1)The occurrence process and consequences of Yongmei Group’s bond default,and the root causes behind;(2)Combined with the analysis of default causes,try to build a set of models suitable for coal enterprises to identify bond default risks under the economic transformation and upgrading,so as to provide help for the market and companies to give early warning and take measures to deal with them.The specific research process is as follows:This paper firstly introduces the background of China’s bond market and the types of products that defaulted bonds belong to,and then summarizes in detail the process of Yongmei Group’s default,the consequences and the final countermeasures.Next,analyze the reasons for the company’s default through the four levels of macro policy,industry,business and finance,and then make a preliminary judgment on the default identification of Yongmei Group based on the existing relatively mature default early warning model,and then combine the existing rating model and improving it to make it suitable for the current economic transformation of coal enterprises to identify defaults,and finally put forward countermeasures for the company based on the results of the early warning.The following conclusions are drawn through the research and summary:(1)In2016,the policy pressure to reduce overcapacity and the long-term excess capacity led to an extremely weak market,and the risk of default by coal companies increased rapidly.(2)Under the background of transformation,Yongmei Group actively seeks to develop and upgrade in the direction of coal chemical industry,but non-coal business products are also cyclical products with serious overcapacity,coupled with factors such as large investment amount and lack of management experience,the operation of this sector has seriously dragged down the company’s overall profitability,which in turn leads to a further increase in the company’s default risk.To sum up,the research significance of this paper is to provide default identification and early warning methods for coal enterprises in the transition from overcapacity to green new energy economy,hoping to contribute to the healthy development of China’s bond market.