Analysis On Influencing Factors And Potential Of Economic Value Of Forest Carbon Sinks In Hubei Province

Forests are the most important part of the terrestrial ecosystem and have the function of carbon sinks,with natural advantages in mitigating climate warming and neutralising carbon dioxide emissions.In recent years,the international community has signed global climate agreements repeatedly,putting forward new requirements for the future development of forest carbon sinks.While China has also put forward the national strategic goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,further expanding the field of forest carbon sink benefits.Under market economy,the economic value of forest carbon sinks plays a decisive role in the smooth implementation of forest carbon sink projects.Therefore,exploring the factors influencing the economic value of forest carbon sinks and their potential has become an important topic in mitigating climate warming and achieving the goal of carbon neutrality.Based on the above issues,from the analysis of the calculation of the economic value of forest carbon sinks,this paper discusses the factors influencing the economic value of forest carbon sinks and its potential,which is of great practical significance nowadays.Hubei province is rich in forest resources and is a major forestry province in China,playing an important role in combating climate change.The region’s forest carbon sinks are even more powerful in maintaining the ecological environment.This paper uses sustainable development theory,ecological economics theory,forest ecology theory and forest transformation theory as the basis of previous research to analyse the factors influencing the economic value of forest carbon sinks and the potential for economic value of forest carbon sinks in Hubei Province.Specifically,based on an accurate understanding of the forest profile of Hubei Province,this paper firstly calculates the carbon stocks of forest stands and total carbon stocks in Hubei Province using the biomass expansion factor method and the forest stock expansion method respectively;secondly,it uses the carbon tax method to select the Swedish carbon tax rate to assess the corresponding economic value;then,it uses the improved grey slope correlation model to analyse the factors influencing the economic value of forest carbon sinks in Hubei Province;at last,the grey Markov prediction model was used to predict the forest carbon stock and its economic value in Hubei Province.The results of the study shows as follow:(1)The dominant tree species in Hubei Province include 27 categories of fir,larch,oil pine,Huashan pine,horsetail pine and foreign pine,with a forest stand carbon stock of248,8651×10~3tons.Among them,there are eight types of tree species with a proportion of carbon stock greater than 1%,in descending order:broad-leaved mixed forest,needle-broad mixed forest,oak,needle-leaved mixed forest,horsetail pine,poplar,fir and cypress,which together account for 95.13%of the carbon stock of the dominant tree species in Hubei Province.They play an important role in the contribution of forest stand carbon stock in the Hubei.The largest proportion of broadleaf mixed forest carbon stocks was 1458733.6×10~3tonnes,accounting for 58.62%,while the smallest proportion of elm carbon stocks was 558.7×10~3tonnes,accounting for 0.02%.Among all the dominant tree species,there are nine types of species with carbon density greater than 40 tons/ha,in descending order:birch,willow fir,pond fir,broadleaf mixed forest,other pines,fir,yellow mountain pine,sequoia and larch,all of which are high carbon density species and are the direction of tree species allocation to improve the forest carbon sink capacity in Hubei Province in the future.The most carbon-intensive species is birch(120.62tonnes/ha),while the least carbon-intensive is acacia(12.52 tonnes/ha).(2)The economic value of carbon sink in forest stands in Hubei Province is$37,329,771,000.Due to the certain price per unit of carbon sink,broadleaf mix forest,coniferous mix forest,oak,coniferous mix forest,horsetail pine,poplar,fir and cypress still played an important role in the economic value contribution of carbon sink in forest stands in the province.The dominant species with the highest economic value is the broadleaf mixed,which created an economic value of$21,881,004,000,while the dominant species with the lowest economic value is elm,which created an economic value of$8,381,000.(3)The total carbon stock of Hubei’s forests is 422,953,300 tons,and the total economic value of carbon sinks is$63,442,995,000,with the stand carbon storage and its economic value accounting for 58.8%of the total carbon stock and its economic value.(4)Through the improved grey slope correlation analysis,the correlation between the completion of investment in forestry fixed assets and forestry output value to total forest carbon stock and its economic value are 0.735 and 0.661 respectively,which are positively strong correlations with high synchronization,which are the main direction to enhance total forest carbon stock and its economic value.The correlation between the area of forest cultivation and timber harvesting to the total forest carbon stock and its economic value are0.305 and 0.405 respectively,which are positively medium correlation and can be regarded as important influencing factors.The correlation between forest fire hazard and forest pest damage to total forest carbon stock and its economic value is-0.414 and-0.213respectively,which is a negative medium correlation.The impact of natural disaster disturbances on forests cannot be neglected.The correlations of average temperature and average precipitation to total forest carbon stock and its economic value are-0.008 and-0.001 respectively,which are negatively weak correlations,and their impacts are relatively limited.(5)Through the analysis of grey Markov prediction model,the total carbon stock of the tenth forest resources inventory in Hubei Province from 2019-2023,the eleventh forest resources inventory from 2024-2028 and the twelfth forest resources inventory from2029-2023 are predicted to be 560,620,500 tons,721,776,500 tons and 929,258,600 tons respectively.Their corresponding total carbon sink economic values are$84,093,075,000,$108,266,475,000 and$139,388,790,000 respectively,which are 32.5%,72.2%and 119.7%higher than those of the ninth forest resources inventory from2014-2018,showing a rapid growth trend in future and containing huge ecological and economic potential,thus forest carbon sinks will be a crucial way to meet ecological planning and reach the target of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.