| With the improvement of industry and people’s living standards,the excessive burning of fossil fuels has emitted a large amount of greenhouse gases,leading to global warming.Nowadays,greenhouse effect,sea level rise and climate warming have become common concerns of the international community.The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)released its fifth assessment report in 2013,saying that from 1880 to 2012,the global average land and ocean surface temperature has increased by 0.85°C.Warming has already brought serious hazards,including rapid sea level rise,frequent storms and floods,outbreaks of infectious diseases,species extinction and biodiversity loss.These include rapid sea level rise,frequent storms and floods,outbreaks of infectious diseases,species extinction and biodiversity loss.While agriculture as a basic industry is developing rapidly,it also brings a large amount of greenhouse gas emissions,and agricultural carbon emissions have become an important part of regional carbon emissions.Hubei Province is located in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,with a vast jurisdiction,and is one of the traditional large agricultural provinces.The province mainly grows rice,cotton,oilseed rape and other field crops,and is considered one of the main food-producing regions in China.Along with the continuous improvement of the level of agricultural modernization,the full implementation of the national policy of agricultural benefits and the extensive use of agricultural technology,the agricultural planting index and sowing frequency in Hubei Province are on the rise.However,with the increasing input of agricultural production factors,such as chemical fertilizers,pesticides,agricultural films and agricultural machinery,the agricultural carbon emission in Hubei Province has been rising,and the degree of agricultural carbon emission is exceptionally serious.Therefore,this paper focuses on agricultural carbon emissions in Hubei Province,aiming to analyze the factors affecting the development of agriculture in Hubei and propose countermeasures to promote sustainable agricultural development.This study mainly uses quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis methods.From the perspective of large agriculture,the six agricultural carbon emission sources used in agricultural production in Hubei Province,such as chemical fertilizers,pesticides,agricultural films,diesel fuel,as well as agricultural irrigation and agricultural tillage,are selected as the main research objects,and the agricultural carbon emissions and their intensity are measured in Hubei Province during the 22 years,which are combined with the development status of agricultural production to reasonably The LMDI model was used to analyze the impact of the change of agricultural production structure,agricultural production efficiency,agricultural economic development level and agricultural labor force size on agricultural carbon emissions.The conclusions of this paper’s research are as follows:(1)The total agricultural carbon emission in Hubei Province from 2000 to 2021,in general,develops upward in a slow ebb and flow,growing from 3,365,300 tons in2000 to 3,553,200 tons in 2021,with an average annual growth rate of 0.13%.The trend of total agricultural carbon emission can be divided into two stages: "fluctuating increase-slowly decrease",and the growth rate slows down to a negative value.In terms of carbon emission structure,fertilizer application and agricultural film application are the two major sources of agricultural carbon in Hubei Province,accounting for nearly 60%,while the contribution of agricultural diesel,pesticides,tillage and agricultural irrigation is relatively small,less than 40%.In the past 20 years,Hubei’s agricultural carbon emission intensity has shown a trajectory of "fluctuating rise-rapid decline-steady decline",from 0.71t/hm2 in 2000 to 0.75t/hm2 in 2021,with an average annual growth rate of 0.7%.Among them,2009 is a notable exception,with a large decrease in intensity,reaching-9.68%.In addition,this study analyzes the regional characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions in Hubei Province,and finds that the situation of unbalanced agricultural carbon emissions in the region,with large differences in total agricultural carbon emissions in the eastern,central and western regions,and this difference in spatial distribution is mainly influenced by factors such as land use,crop cultivation structure and agricultural production methods.(2)From the results of the correlation analysis of the factors influencing agricultural carbon emissions in Hubei Province,all the carbon emission factors explored in this paper are reasonable and highly correlated,and the Kaya constant equation is introduced to decompose the factors influencing agricultural carbon emissions by following the LMDI model framework.Among them,the factor of agricultural economic development level plays a positive driving role in agricultural carbon emission in Hubei Province,and the cumulative effect contribution value is933.83 million tons respectively during 2000-2021;the factor of agricultural production efficiency,the factor of agricultural industry structure,and the factor of labor force size play a reverse inhibiting role in agricultural carbon emission in Hubei Province,and the cumulative effect of 733.14 million tons,587.2 million tons and1.231.6 million tons of carbon emission are realized respectively during 22 years.(3)Finally,according to the analysis of Hubei Province’s agricultural production efficiency,the agricultural industry structure factor and the labor force scale factor have played an inverse role in carbon emission reduction.(3)Finally,according to the measurement and analysis of the causes of agricultural carbon emissions in Hubei Province,we propose corresponding countermeasures for emission reduction.This study recommends reducing the use of agricultural machinery to reduce its contribution to agricultural carbon emissions.Reduce the use of chemical fertilizers,strengthen the green development of agriculture,and improve production efficiency.Rationalize the use of arable land,improve soil quality and fertility,and reduce land occupation.Promote the use of clean energy,such as solar and wind power.Take advantage of the positive carbon trading market to improve the economic efficiency of agriculture.Improve the professional quality of agricultural labor force and cultivate low-carbon awareness. |
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