Heterogeneous Analysis Of CO₂ Emission Characteristics And Reduction Strategies In Developed And Developing Countries

Since the beginning of this century,developed countries have undergone the process of urbanization and industrialization.To assess whether the emission reduction patterns of developed countries can serve as references for developing countries,it is necessary to measure their effectiveness in reducing emissions and perform comparative analyses with developing countries.Meanwhile,growing CO2 emissions and ambiguous low-carbon transition paths have gradually become a bright spot for developing countries,given the rapid advancement of urbanization and industrialization.However,the driving forces underlying dynamic change in emissions are poorly understood due to the lack of data and incomplete statistics,despite the crucial role of developing countries in addressing climate change.Identifying the commonalities and heterogeneities of CO2 emissions between developed and developing countries is the prerequisite for fair emission reduction and climate change mitigation.Based on the scientific understanding of CO2 emission patterns and drivers in developed and developing countries,it is crucial to provide some thoughts for future mitigation policies.For developed countries,this study first tracks the trend of CO2 emissions from both production and consumption(trade-adjusted)perspectives to in-depth analyze emissions embodied in trade and explore the sharing of emission reduction responsibilities.Changes in CO2 emissions are decomposed into six factors:population,economic growth(measured by GDP per capita),industrial structure,energy intensity,energy mix,and emission coefficient,through the logarithmic mean division index(LMDI)to find out key factors for emission reduction in developed countries.Based on the official energy data of each country and the accounting framework of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),this study firstly compiles and provides fossil fuel-related emissions of 20 developing countries covering Asia,Africa and South America from 2010 to 2019 and concentrates on the energy consumption and emission patterns.Finally,the Tapio decoupling index and Environmental Kuznets Curve are used to clarify the stages between CO2 emissions and economic development in 20 developing countries,and further evaluate the socio-economic factors affecting changes in CO2 emissions in developing countries.The results of comparing the emission patterns and drivers of developed countries demonstrate that,while emissions from both production and consumption perspectives have generally decreased,the reduction rates exhibited disparities.Developed countries,including the United States and the United Kingdom,engaged in international trade to meet domestic demand.However,emissions embodied in the consumption of imported goods or services were largely attributed to developing countries such as China and India,increasing the emissions of these countries and resulting in carbon leakage issues.The major factors enabling developed countries to achieve the reduction in emissions were energy intensity and energy mix.The adjustment of industrial structure has been the key strategy for reducing emissions in the vast majority of developed countries.Using the newly established CO2 emission inventories for developing countries,the unbalance and heterogeneity of population,CO2 emissions and economy have been demonstrated.Three growth patterns of emissions and economy in these developing countries have been identified from 2010 to 2019.This study also assessed an inverted U-shaped relationship between GDP per capita and emissions,with the current development stage located on the left side of the curve.However,rapid economic growth in developing countries has increased emissions,but the impacts of various socio-economic factors were not as consistent as those in developed countries.Population growth in developing African countries significantly contributed to the increase in emissions.Better energy mix and energy efficiency were the principal factors in the decoupling of emissions from GDP for over half of developing countries,such as India.Furthermore,the industrial structure was another factor that slowed emissions,especially in South America.Thus,developed and developing countries are in different stages of emissions,and the effects of emission reduction factors vary.Developed and developing countries can comprehensively consider their resource endowments and economic development levels to refine emission reduction policies and initiate the low-carbon transformation by utilizing renewable energy such as wind and solar,improving energy efficiency and adjusting energy and industrial structure.As developed countries continue to reduce their emissions,they can provide financial and technological assistance to developing countries to jointly tackle issues such as carbon leakage.This study contributes to the establishment of low-carbon development pathways across countries and has significant implications for global climate change mitigation.