Study On The Decoupling Effect And Influencing Factors Of Carbon Emissions From Transportation Industry In Yangtze River Delta Region

The transportation industry plays a pivotal role in the national economy,not only providing an important vehicle for the movement of people and materials,but also playing an important role in promoting social and economic development,but also being the second largest source of carbon emissions in the world.The Plan for the Integrated Development of Transport in the Yangtze River Delta Region with Higher Quality puts forward the goal of promoting the sustainable development of green and low-carbon transport in the Yangtze River Delta region.In the context of the national policy of "carbon neutrality and carbon peaking",it is necessary to scientifically measure the carbon emissions of the transportation industry in the Yangtze River Delta region,analyze the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth of the industry,and thoroughly study and analyze the main influencing factors of carbon emissions.This thesis measures the trend of total carbon emissions,per capita carbon emissions and carbon intensity of the transportation industry in the Yangtze River Delta region from2006 to 2020 based on the "top-down" approach,constructs a decoupling index model for carbon emissions in the transportation industry in the Yangtze River Delta region based on the Tapio decoupling index model,and measures the decoupling status between carbon emissions and economic growth in the transportation industry in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2006 to 2020.The decoupling state between carbon emissions and economic growth of the transportation industry in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2006 to 2020 is measured and analyzed,and the LMDI factor decomposition method based on Kaya’s constant equation and C-D production function is further applied to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emissions in the transportation industry in the Yangtze River Delta region,and a threshold regression model is used as a supplementary method to the LMDI factor decomposition method to analyze the influence of the threshold variable on the carbon emissions of the transportation industry in the Yangtze River Delta region.The impact of different stages of the LMDI factor decomposition method on the carbon dioxide emissions of the transportation industry in the Yangtze River Delta region is analyzed.The findings indicate that the total carbon emissions from transportation in the Yangtze River Delta region increased from 109.15 million tons in 2006 to 20280.86 million tons in2020,showing a trend of increasing year by year,then fluctuating,and now stabilizing.From2006 to 2020,there were three types of decoupling observed between transport carbon emissions and economic growth: expanded connection,weak decoupling,and strong decoupling.Although strong decoupling was achieved in 2020,it is not yet stable enough,and there is still a long way to go for the low-carbon transformation of the transport industry.In the decomposition analysis of influencing factors,the main promoting factors were energy structure and capital input,while the main inhibiting factors were unit consumption level,traffic intensity,technology level,and labor input.Capital input was identified as the key factor leading to the growth of carbon emissions,contributing to an increase of 101,246,800 tons with a contribution rate of 1.9537.On the other hand,the technological level was found to be the key factor in effectively inhibiting the growth of carbon emissions,resulting in a cumulative reduction of 34.1031 million tons with a contribution rate of 0.798.In threshold regression,single consumption level,labor input,and skill level all exhibited a threshold effect.The single consumption of water and the increase of labor input led to the increase of capital input on carbon emissions,while the improvement of technology level led to the decrease of capital input on carbon emissions.Finally,based on the research results,this paper proposes policy recommendations for the low-carbon development of the transportation industry in the Yangtze River Delta region from four aspects: adjusting investment direction,strengthening scientific and technological support,improving transportation efficiency,and optimizing energy structure.