Research On The Trade-off And Synergy Relationship Of Ecosystem Services In Guizhou Province Based On Land Us

The coordinated development of land ecosystems is of great importance to regional sustainable development and ecological security.As an important ecological barrier construction area in the upper reaches of Yangtze River,Pearl River and southwest China,Guizhou Province occupies an important position in the construction of national ecological civilization and carries important ecological functions in the strategic layout of ecological security in the upper reaches of the two rivers.In the past few decades,the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization has had a profound impact on the land use structure of Guizhou Province,and the current critical period of high-quality development in Guizhou Province is crucial to how to keep the bottom line of development and ecology in the future.It is important to explore the past land use,ecosystem service changes and future development trends in Guizhou Province,and to reveal the reasons for the spatial divergence of ecosystem service trade-off synergies in the region as a whole and in different geomorphic regions for sustainable regional ecological development.This paper analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of regional land use based on land use data in Guizhou Province in 1980,2000 and 2020,assessed the value of ecosystem services in the study area from 1980 to 2020 using the equivalent factor method,explored the trade-off synergistic relationships among services using correlation analysis,bivariate spatial autocorrelation analysis and root mean square error,and clarified their spatial and temporal divergence characteristics.Exploring the main factors influencing the spatial differentiation of trade-off relationships among services using geographic probes,and using self-organizing mapping for functional zoning control of ecological services according to the relationships among ecosystem services.The Markov-PLUS model was also used to simulate land use patterns under the 2025 baseline scenario,arable land conservation scenario,and ecological conservation scenario,and to assess ecosystem services and trade-off synergies under different scenarios.The main findings are as follows:(1)The combined index of land use dynamic attitude and land use degree in Guizhou province during 1980-2020 is small,and the overall trend is increasing.The land use structure of Guizhou Province is stable,with forest land,farmland and grassland as the main land use types.With the promotion of urbanization,the interconversion of each category is remarkable,and the areas of farmland,forest land and unused land have all decreased,while the areas of grassland,built land and water area land have all increased.(2)The value of ecosystem services in Guizhou province is mainly contributed by woodlands and grasslands,with an increasing trend between 1980 and 2020,with a total increase of 9.002 billion RMB over the past 40 years,mainly due to the growth of regional watershed area.The spatial pattern of ecosystem service values is relatively stable,with an overall distribution of high values in the east and low values in the west.The high values are mainly distributed in non-karst areas,local areas in the south and northwest of the karst trough valley,and forest land areas in the central part of the crest depression,while the low values of ecosystem services are mainly distributed in the karst plateau,karst basin,local areas in the north and south of the karst trough valley,and local areas in the west of the crest depression where farmland is distributed.The changes in ecosystem service values are mainly in the karst plateau,karst trough valley and other areas with more concentrated changes in farmland,forest land,water area and built land.(3)During the study period,Guizhou province as a whole and each landscape area showed negative correlations between supply services-regulation services,supply services-support services,and supply services-cultural services,and positive correlations between regulation services-support services,regulation services-cultural services,and support services-cultural services.The bivariate spatial relationships between supply services-regulation services,supply services-support services,and supply services-cultural services are dominated by trade-off relationships,with "low-high" and "high-low" trade-offs showing an east-west distribution,and the synergistic relationships between regulation services-support services,regulation services-cultural services,and support services-cultural services are dominated by synergistic relationships,with "high-high" and "low-low" synergies showing an east-west distribution in the region.The synergistic relationship of ecosystem service trade-offs between the region as a whole and different landscape areas and the factors influencing the spatial differentiation of their trade-off intensity vary;the region is divided into ecological protection zones,ecological conservation zones,and ecological management zones according to ecosystem service functions.(4)The baseline scenario has a significant expansion of construction land,the farmland area grows in the farmland conservation scenario,forest and grassland are protected in the ecological conservation scenario,and the expansion of built land is controlled.Compared to 2020,the ecosystem service values of the baseline scenario and the ecological protection scenario increase by 3.987 billion yuan and 5.721 billion yuan,respectively,and the ecosystem service values of the cropland protection scenario decrease by 746 million yuan.The trade-offs between supply services-regulation services,supply services-support services,and supply services-cultural services for the study area and each geomorphic area under the three scenarios are the smallest trade-offs in the ecological conservation scenario.The synergistic relationship between regulation service-support service,regulation service-cultural service,and support service-cultural service is synergistic,the synergistic value is the largest in the ecological conservation scenario,and the ecological conservation scenario plays a positive ecological conservation role.