Analysis And Prediction Of Influencing Factors Of Carbon Emission In Liaoning Province Based On LMDI And STIRPAT Models

With the rapid development of economy and society,the consumption of fossil fuels is also increasing.China’s coal-based energy consumption pattern has led to a steady increase in carbon dioxide emissions in recent years,further contributing to the greenhouse effect.Liaoning Province,as a large industrial province,has brought about serious environmental problems such as high pollution,high emission and high energy consumption while developing its economy.These problems have become the main factors restricting its economic development.It is of great significance for the development of low carbon economy in Liaoning province to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emission in Liaoning Province,forecast the future carbon emission and formulate corresponding policies and measures.Based on the relevant data of Liaoning Province from 2011 to 2020,this paper analyzes the current situation of energy consumption and carbon emission in Liaoning Province from the perspectives of economic development,population size and urbanization.The factor decomposition model based on LMDI method was used to solve and quantitatively analyze the influencing factors of energy consumption carbon emissions in Liaoning Province.The results show that the effect of economic development intensity plays an important role in promoting the growth of carbon emission in Liaoning Province.Energy structure intensity effect,energy consumption intensity effect and population size effect inhibited the growth of carbon emission in Liaoning Province.Among them,the strongest inhibitory effect is energy consumption intensity effect.Using the extended STIRPAT model,population size,per capita GDP,energy intensity and energy consumption structure were selected to fit the carbon emission data of Liaoning Province from 2011 to 2020 and the data of various indicators.The fitting equation was obtained,and then the carbon emission of Liaoning Province from 2021 to 2030 was predicted.The predicted results show that the carbon emissions of energy consumption in Liaoning Province will continue to increase from 2021 to 2030.Liaoning Province will continue to increase its carbon emissions in the coming years despite efforts to reduce emissions by strengthening technology and optimizing industrial structure.Based on the results of LMDI factor decomposition and the results of carbon emission prediction obtained by STIRPAT model,some suggestions for controlling and reducing carbon emission in Liaoning Province are put forward.The research of this paper provides suggestions and guidance for the better development of Liaoning Province,and hopes to provide reference for other provinces and cities.