Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Beef Cattle Breeding Based On The Ecological Cycle Model In Jilin Province

The world is experiencing profound shifts unseen in a century.Especially,the challenge of climate change has been prominent,posing an extremely onerous and serious threat to the survival and development of all the human beings.As the world’s second largest source of greenhouse gas emissions and the foundation of China’s national economy,the agriculture shoulders the great responsibility to reduce emissions.In this way,how to keep an appropriate balance between the economic growth and emission reduction from agriculture,is a hot point for the Chinese government.Jilin Province,which strives to be the first to realize agricultural modernization,pays great attention to the issue of tackling the climate change.In particular,the government of Jilin Province unveiled the implement of“the Straw into Cattle Meat”in 2021,namely the construction project of breeding 10 million heads of beef cattle,which revealed the comprehensive utilization of agricultural wastes,such as straw fodder and manure fertilization,can effectively avoid a large proportion of greenhouse gas emissions.In addition,it is also a fundamental path to promote the development of the planting and breeding system with green,low-carbon and sustainable agriculture.Taking Jilin Province as an example,this paper selects data related to the planting and breeding industry from 2003 to 2021,and uses Emission-Factor Approach to calculate the quantity of greenhouse gas emissions so that analyze its trend.Besides,estimating the influential factors and mechanism that lead to emit emissions of planting and breeding system via the Kaya identity and LMDI model,at the same time,analyzing each value of its contribution.Finally,according to the life cycle assessment（LCA）,predicting the annual greenhouse gas emissions of 10 million heads of beef cattle under both the ecological cycle model（EC model）and the non-ecological cycle model（non-EC model）,respectively,in order to compare the differences between these two production models in each process,and thus explore which one is more sustainable and environmentally friendly.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows.First,the planting and breeding system is still the important support for the agricultural industry of Jilin Province and it has already formed a pattern that the planting and breeding go hand in hand.In addition,from 2003 to 2021,the system in Jilin Province achieved the“low intensity-low density”emitting pattern.During this period,greenhouse gas emissions from breeding industry fluctuates considerably,however,showed an overall downward trend,and its emissions continued to exceed the steadily rising emissions from planting industry,and the gap between these two emissions were gradually narrowing.Second,the energy structure,energy intensity,industrial structure and agricultural labor factors have the suppressive effect on greenhouse gas emissions,while the economic level factor shows a significant driving effect on emitting emissions.Therefore,it can achieve greenhouse gas emission reduction through adjusting the first four factors,at same time,avoiding the obsessive pursuit of economic growth at the expense of the limits of the environmental carrying capacity.Third,the annual greenhouse gas emissions from breeding 10 million heads of beef cattle under the non-EC model are approximately 4 times higher than those under the EC model.In almost all processes of the LCA,the greenhouse gas emissions of the EC model are significantly lower than those of its counterpart has,especially the processes of corn planting,manure management and straw burning are the main emission sources with the most differences in amounts of emissions in both models,36.74×10⁷t、14.44×10⁷t and 4.19×10⁷t respectively.That means for the sake of promoting waste and resource recycling in the breeding system,it is worth noting that utilizing straw as livestock feed and manure as fertilizers are core methods of the EC model.On the other hand,regardless of which kind of greenhouse gas emissions are produced in the non-EC model,the amount of emissions is dramatically higher than that in the EC model.In particular,the difference in CO₂ emissions is the largest compared with CH₄ and N₂O emissions,and the large proportions of CO₂ emissions account for 68.01%and 56.17%in their respective breeding systems as well.Forth,in terms of the implementation of“the Straw into Cattle Meat”,it makes theoretical and practical implications in Jilin Province that it would have a significant effect on greenhouse gas emission reduction in both the planting industry and beef cattle breeding industry,and it is also a forward-looking initiative that can translate ecological benefits into economic and social benefits.Based on the above findings,this paper puts forward five policy suggestions in order to enhance the mechanism of Jilin Province’s planting and breeding system.First of all,to vigorously push the implement of the EC model.Second,to strengthen the construction of efficient new energy development and utilization system of the beef cattle’s industrial chain.Third,to promote the transformation and upgrading of the beef cattle’s industry.Forth,to improve the quality of the labor force.Finally,to encourage the scientific and technological innovation in the beef cattle’s industry.