Simulation Studies On Carbon Peaking Path And Pollutant Collaborative Control Of Power Sources In Gansu Province

Against the background of the two severe challenges of global warming and air pollution,it has become the consensus of all countries that reducing greenhouse gas emissions to actively respond to global warming and reducing pollutant emissions to prevent and control air pollution.Synergistic emission reduction between CO₂ and air pollutants has become the main force to deal with future global warming and air pollution.Coal-Fired Power is the most important form in China’s power generation structure,of which generation accounts for about 75%of total amount,so it is the main force for reducing pollution and carbon emission.Taking 2020 as the base year,this research designs 3 first-level scenarios of low-speed（S1）,medium-speed（S2）,and high-speed（S3）power generation growth rate in Gansu Province from 2020 to 2030based on the power elasticity coefficient method,and 3 second-level scenarios of the baseline（BAU）,renewable power generation（RPG）,and clean coal-fired power generation（CCFPG）based on local planning,a total of 9 combined scenarios.This research explores the optimal carbon peaking path of power sources in Gansu Province,and discusses the situation of collaborative emission reduction of characteristic pollutants and CO₂ based on the LEAP model,then uses the Models-3/CMAQ system to simulate and analyze the pollutant concentration contribution to environmental air quality between 3 different distribution schemes（CCFPG2～4）,constrained by the power structure and spatial distribution factor,and the benchmark scheme（CCFPG1）under the optimal carbon peak path.This study gets the optimal carbon peaking path of power structural development path in Gansu Province,which can not only meet the basic power demand,but also have the best environmental benefits.The main conclusions are as follows:（1）S2＿CCFPG can not only meet the country’s"carbon peak"requirements for electric power industry and have good environmental benefits,but can provide supply of electricity required for normal economic development in Gansu Province,which is the optimal carbon peaking path for Gansu’s power sources from 2020 to 2030.In this scenario,the"carbon peak"will be achieved in 2029,and the peak emissions of CO₂will be 1.14×10⁸ t.Meanwhile,the CO₂ reduction rate will be-24.01%.At the same time,emissions of 3 pollutants NO_X,SO₂,and PM_2.5 will be maximum in 2027,2029and 2029,while the peak emissions are 16.32×10⁴ t,5.89×10⁴ t and 1.38×10⁴ t respectively,and the pollutant reduction rates are-22.98%,-26.41%and-26.43%respectively.（2）CCFPG4 is the best distribution scheme with the best environmental benefits under the optimal carbon peaking path,which has a significant synergistic emission reduction effect of CO₂ and characteristic pollutants,and has a certain improvement effect on the ambient air quality as well.Gansu Province should ensure the proportion of RPG in the overall power generation in accordance with the"14th Five-Year Energy Development Plan of Gansu Province",and reduce wind discard rates and light discard rates as much as possible.During the 15th five-year period,it is vital to carry out CCFPG transformation of conventional coal-fire power generation,even carbon capture and storage（CCS）transformation.Carrying out ultra-supercritical combustion（USC）technological transformation on electricity generation enterprises in the central and south-central energy integration and innovation zones and in the southeast key new energy development zones of the Hexi Corridor,and integrated gasification combined cycle-carbon capture and storage（IGCC-CCS）technical transformation in the northwest key new energy development zones of the Hexi Corridor and the multi-energy complementary comprehensive energy development and utilization zones in eastern and southeast Gansu could generally minimize the impact of power sources on ambient air quality.