The Impact Of Russia-Ukraine Conflicton International Gas Trade Pattern And China’s Countermeasures

Geopolitics is an important factor influencing the international gas trade pattern.The Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the sanctions imposed by the US and Europe on Russia’s energy trade have had a strong impact on Russia’s gas exports and have profoundly affected the international gas trade pattern.Against this backdrop,an in-depth analysis of the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the international gas trade pattern and the proposed countermeasures are of great significance in ensuring China’s energy supply security.This thesis analyses the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the international gas trade landscape from two perspectives: social network comparison and event evolution analysis.On this basis,it analyses the challenges faced by China’s gas trade in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and proposes strategies to address them.This thesis is divided into seven parts: the first part is an introduction;the second part is a literature review,which reviews and analyses existing research from three perspectives: the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the impact of the geopolitical conflict on the international energy trade pattern and the strategies of countries around the world to ensure energy supply security;the third part is a review of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the process of the conflict;the fourth part is a comparative analysis of social networks,which compares the changes in the gas trade network before and after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022.The fourth part is based on a comparative analysis of social networks,and summarizes the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the international gas trade pattern by comparing the changes in the gas trade network before and after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022.This section analyses the impact on international gas trade patterns in terms of international prices,trade supply and flows of gas.The sixth section examines the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on China’s natural gas trade and proposes countermeasures.On the basis of an analysis of the current situation of China’s natural gas supply and the impact of the RussiaUkraine conflict on China’s natural gas trade,this section provides an in-depth analysis of the security problems in China’s natural gas supply and puts forward corresponding suggestions for improvement.This thesis shows that:(1)the US and European countries are gradually increasing the sanctions on Russia’s energy trade,the export capacity of Russia’s natural gas trade has plummeted,the export volume of the US and Norway is rapidly increasing,while the US has become the world’s number one LNG exporter in the first half of 2022,the global natural gas supply pattern is being reshaped;(2)European countries are also actively expanding their natural gas import resources,and in 2021(2)European countries are also actively expanding their natural gas import resources,with natural gas imports to the Middle East,Central Asia and the US gradually increasing since 2021,and LNG deliveries from the US to the AsiaPacific region shifting to the European region,with global natural gas trade flows also changing;(3)global natural gas prices soared at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict,but the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on world natural gas prices is gradually diminishing over time,and prices have recently trended back down.Although China has not been directly affected by the changes in the international gas trade,the situation of China’s gas trade has become increasingly critical and the security of China’s gas supply is facing a huge challenge.In response to the indirect effects of China’s pronounced gas price volatility,intensified competition for imported resources and trade uncertainty between China and Russia has intensified,this thesis proposes countermeasures around the following areas:(1)strengthening the industrial base for domestic gas security;(2)deepening international cooperation on gas;(3)strengthening China’s gas infrastructure;and(4)deepening gas market reform.