Spatial-temporal Differences Of Industrial Carbon Emissions And Carbon Emission Reduction Strategies In Provinces Along The Yellow River Basion Under The Goal Of "Peak Carbon Dioxide Emissions"

The provinces along the Yellow River Basin account for more than half of the country’s total coal reserves and are rich in oil,natural gas and non-ferrous metals,making them important energy-intensive industrial areas in China.Meanwhile,the Yellow River Basin connects a series of ecological highlands,which is a huge ecological corridor and an important ecological barrier in China.However,the ecological environment in the Yellow River Basin is fragile,the types of ecological problems are complex and diverse,the ecological environment governance is difficult and the recovery process is slow,which brings many hidden dangers to the improvement of local carbon sink capacity.At the same time,the increasing industrial carbon emissions in provinces along the Yellow River Basin pose serious challenges to local ecological environmental protection and high-quality development.Within the provinces along the Yellow River Basin,the high forest and grass coverage rate in the middle and upper reaches,whose economic development level is lower,the low forest and grass coverage rate in the middle and lower reaches,whose economic development level is high.As a result,some provinces do not realize certain economic growth while providing carbon carrying capacity for other provinces free of charge,which seems to increase the imbalance of development within the basin.Under the "peak carbon dioxide emissions" goal,the conflict between economic growth and carbon emission reduction goal appears in the provinces along the Yellow River Basin,and the unfair distribution of benefits also appears among the provinces within the basin,which makes the provinces along the river basin fall into the dual dilemma of carbon emission reduction and social and economic development.Scientific allocation of industrial carbon emission quota and establishment of carbon compensation mechanism is exactly the key to solve this problem,while identifying the driving factors of industrial carbon emission growth is the key and difficult point to achieve the goal of "peak carbon dioxide emissions" goal.Based on this,the study calculated the industrial carbon footprint and industrial carbon carrying capacity of the provinces along the Yellow River Basin to calculate the physical amount of industrial carbon compensation of the provinces along the Yellow River Basin.The ecosystem service value was innovatively adopted to transform the physical amount of industrial carbon compensation into the value amount,and the provinces along the river basin were divided into industrial carbon payment area and receiving area.The allocation method of industrial carbon emission quota of provinces along the Yellow River Basin was proposed based on the principles of equity,efficiency and sustainability.The LMDI decomposition model was used to analyze the influence of industrial carbon emission coefficient,industrial energy intensity,industrial economic factor and industrial employment population size factor on industrial carbon emission of provinces along the Yellow River Basin.The results show that both the quantity and value of industrial carbon compensation amount are increasing in the provinces along the Yellow River Basin,and the value quantity is growing faster than the physical quantity.The amount of industrial carbon compensation in the middle and upper reaches of the basin is much smaller than that in the middle and lower reaches of the basin.The total industrial carbon payment amount of the provinces along the routes is greater than the industrial carbon receiving amount.From 2001 to 2020,the average amount of industrial carbon compensation amount in the provinces along the Yellow River Basin was 697.421 billion yuan.It shows that industrial carbon emissions in the basin have negative externalities to other regions.The provinces with strong industrial carbon carrying capacity are located in the middle and upper reaches,while the provinces with high energy consumption are located in the middle and lower reaches,which have limited industrial carbon carrying capacity.The principles of fairness,efficiency and sustainability have different weights,and each principle has a different impact on the allocation of industrial carbon emission quota.Relatively speaking,Qinghai has a large industrial carbon emission space,which is 448.88%,while Shanxi,Inner Mongolia and Ningxia lack of industrial carbon emission space,were-65.00%,53.87%and-9.98%,respectively.Sichuan,Shaanxi,Henan and Shandong had limited industrial carbon emission space,while other provinces,including Qinghai and Gansu,had relatively sufficient industrial carbon emission space.At the same time,the Gini coefficient is used to test the results of industrial carbon emission quota allocation,and the test results show that the allocation method is still fair.In addition,the LMDI results showed that there were differences in the direction and average contribution of each factor to industrial carbon emissions in different provinces.In this study,the provinces along the Yellow River Basin in China were taken as an example for empirical analysis,and the amount of industrial carbon compensation was measured in economic form by using the ecosystem service value method to determine the amount of industrial carbon paid and received by the provinces along the river basin.At the same time,scientific allocation of industrial carbon emission quota between provinces is of great practical significance to achieve maximum emission reduction at minimum cost.Finally,this study uses LMDI method to analyze the factors driving the growth of industrial carbon emissions in various provinces,showing the differences in the factors driving industrial carbon emissions in different regions.The study provides a novel theoretical framework and ideas for the formulation of diverse carbon emission reduction policies.The study suggests that differentiated industrial carbon management policies should be established among regions.Industrial compensation and industrial carbon emission quota trading mechanisms should be established.