The Impact Of Carbon Tax On Global Shipping Costs And Maritime Trade And The Research On Shipping Enterprises’ Coping Strategies

Greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions from shipping have attracted more and more attention from the shipping industry.In recent years,the International Maritime Organization(IMO)is actively discussing the introduction of a market-based carbon reduction measure-the global shipping carbon tax,that is,a tax on carbon dioxide equivalents emitted during the operation of ships.This measure is imperative.This measure has aroused widespread concern and discussion in the industry and academia.It is generally believed that this measure will have a far-reaching impact on the shipping industry and shipping enterprises.At the macro level,the shipping carbon tax policy will affect the global trade pattern and trade volume,and at the micro level,it will affect the long-term profitability of shipping enterprises.At present,relevant research and models of carbon emissions from ships in relevant academic circles and industries are analyzed from the perspective of single ship emissions,and relevant methods and models are difficult to analyze in combination with global routes and trade patterns.In order to assess the potential impact of carbon tax on global trade and pattern,this paper develops a shipping carbon emission model based on the trade volume of routes and applies it to the analysis of China’s dry bulk shipping trade,one of the largest shipping trading countries in the world.The results show that the introduction of global shipping carbon tax will have a significant impact on the freight and commodity trading prices of different regional routes.According to the model analysis,shipping freight will increase by 10%～30% in different trading regions and carbon price standards(US $100～300per ton of carbon dioxide),which is equivalent to 1%～4% of the commodity trade price.In addition,the short shipping distance may reduce the emissions of "ton sea" goods,and the shipping carbon tax may therefore trigger a major change in the global shipping trade pattern,resulting in China becoming increasingly dependent on neighboring countries in terms of major commodity imports,such as India and Australia.Relevant findings will play an important role in guiding the route layout and ship capacity planning of China’s shipping enterprises.On the other hand,shipping carbon tax has caused considerable economic damage or profit loss to shipping service providers.Shipping companies have to take corresponding measures immediately to reduce the carbon emissions of ships to meet relevant regulations and policy requirements.This paper further explores the optimal carbon emission reduction decision-making of shipping enterprises under the background of global shipping carbon tax from the micro level,and focuses on the analysis of major shipping emission reduction measures such as deceleration,hull cleaning,waste heat recovery and alternative fuel LNG.Based on the above established shipping carbon emission model,the cost and benefit of the four emission reduction measures are evaluated by building a simulated fleet operation scenario,and then a decision tree model of the shipping emission reduction scheme is built to analyze the long-term expected benefits of different emission reduction measures and obtain the relevant optimal decision.The relevant analysis results provide an important reference for shipping companies to formulate and adjust future ship carbon emission reduction strategies.