Study On The Impact Mechanism Of Agricultural Land Management Scale On Agricultural Carbon Emissions

Agriculture is an important source of greenhouse gas emissions.In recent years,the intensification of global warming has brought great challenges to the agricultural production system.China’s agricultural land system has great potential in carbon fixation and emission reduction,but at present,China’s ecological environment governance is still facing serious challenges.The concept of increasing agricultural production and income conflicts with the concept of carbon reduction,and the problems of energy consumption and carbon emissions caused by large-scale production need to be solved urgently.Agricultural ecological issues are closely related to the effectiveness of the rural revitalization strategy.Under the background of China’s "double carbon" pattern,how to ensure that the land scale is compatible with the agricultural green development has been a hot topic of academic concern.It is difficult to reflect the overall picture of carbon emission reduction of agricultural land management scale at the present stage from a single perspective.It is necessary to analyze the changing characteristics of agricultural land system and various agricultural element inputs,and clarify the internal mechanism of China’s agricultural land management scale on agricultural carbon emission,which has great theoretical significance and application value for alleviating the carbon emission pressure of China’s agricultural production sector and promoting the green and high-quality development of agriculture.Based on the summary of relevant research results and theoretical basis,this paper constructs the theoretical framework of the impact of agricultural land management scale on agricultural carbon emissions and puts forward assumptions,analyzes the current situation and characteristics of agricultural land management scale,agricultural carbon emissions and other agricultural production factors in China,selects the provincial panel data from 2006-2019,and uses dynamic panel model,intermediary effect model,regulatory effect model and spatial econometric model,To examine and explore the role of agricultural land management scale on agricultural carbon emissions and the specific impact mechanism.The results show that:(1)On the premise of controlling the other agricultural factors,expanding the scale of agricultural land management will lead to an increase in the total agricultural carbon emissions,while the agricultural carbon emissions per unit agricultural output value will be significantly reduced.(2)The scale of agricultural land management in the eastern region has a significant positive impact on the total carbon emissions,while the carbon emissions in the central and western regions are not significantly affected by the scale of agricultural land management;The carbon reduction effect in the eastern region is obvious;The total amount of agricultural carbon emissions in the main grain-producing areas is more significantly affected by the scale of agricultural land management,while the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions in the main grain-producing areas and the main grainselling areas is more significantly reduced.The carbon reduction effect of agricultural land scale management is not significant in the grain production and marketing balance area.(3)Agricultural mechanization plays a part of intermediary role in the process that the scale of agricultural land management affects agricultural carbon emissions.In addition,labor transfer plays a positive regulatory role in the process of agricultural mechanization affected by the scale of agricultural land management,while the intermediary effect of agricultural mechanization on agricultural carbon emissions is a positive U-shaped regulatory effect.(4)The scale of agricultural land management affects the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions in neighboring areas by adjusting the level of crossregional substitution of factors and the "grain orientation" of agricultural land planting structure;The carbon emission intensity of surrounding provinces will increase with the expansion of the scale of agricultural land management in the province;The provinces with low grain planting structure may have strong carbon reduction effect.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper further discusses relevant optimization suggestions: vigorously promote agricultural technology innovation,strengthen the innovation of agricultural machinery integration service mode,reasonably guide the transfer of labor force,advocate green agricultural production mode,implement differentiated low-carbon agricultural policies,and strengthen regional cooperation.It is expected to provide positive policy reference and reference for China’s agricultural carbon emission reduction.