Provincial Industrial Structure Adjustment、Space Overflow And Carbon Emission Intensity

Since the reform and opening up,with the rapid industrialization of China’s economy,the absolute value of the output value of high energy consumption and high emissions heavy chemical industry is relatively large,resulting in a sharp increase in carbon emissions,making China the world’s largest carbon emitting country.As a country highly responsible for the ecological environment,China proposed the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in 2020,and constantly restricting carbon emissions generated in economic development has become the basic strategy of China’s social and economic development.Industrial restructuring is a key path to reducing carbon emission intensity.Due to the high correlation of industrial chains between provinces,especially adjacent provinces,the flow of production factors and industrial transfer are relatively easy.The adjustment of provincial industrial structure has a spatial spillover effect on other provinces,especially adjacent provinces.Therefore,it is necessary to conduct in-depth research on the mechanism and degree of impact of provincial industrial structure adjustment on carbon emission intensity,which has important application value for formulating policies to develop a green and low-carbon economy and achieving the dual carbon goal.This article focuses on the issues of industrial structure adjustment and carbon emission intensity that hinder China’s development.Based on low-carbon economy theory,industrial structure theory,and spatial econometric theory,theoretical analysis is conducted and corresponding hypotheses are proposed.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China(excluding Tibet Autonomous Region,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2005 to 2019,this paper analyzes the status quo of provincial industrial structure and carbon emission intensity,uses the spatial Durbin model to analyze the spatial spillover effect of industrial structure adjustment on carbon emission intensity,and considers the moderating effect of government intervention as a moderating variable on the relationship between the two.At the same time,the 30 provinces in China are divided into eastern,central,and eastern provinces Regional heterogeneity analysis and robustness test were carried out in the three major regions in the west.Theoretical analysis and empirical results indicate that: firstly,there is a spatial positive correlation between China’s carbon emission intensity,which means that the carbon emission intensity in this region will affect the carbon emission intensity in spatially correlated regions.Secondly,the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure can reduce the intensity of carbon emissions in the region.The upgrading of industrial structure can play a significant positive spillover effect,helping neighboring regions reduce carbon emissions.However,the rationalization of industrial structure can play a negative spillover effect,which is not conducive to carbon emissions reduction in neighboring regions.Thirdly,government intervention has a moderating effect on the impact of industrial structure on carbon emission intensity.Government intervention can strengthen the emission reduction effect of industrial structure upgrading on the region,playing a negative regulatory role;The government intervention to strengthen the rationalization of industrial structure has a negative regulatory effect on increasing carbon emission intensity in neighboring provinces.Fourth,the impact of industrial structure adjustment on carbon emission intensity has regional heterogeneity.The direct and indirect effects of industrial structure in the eastern region on carbon emission intensity are not significant;The upgrading of industrial structure in the central region has a positive effect on the carbon emission intensity of the local and adjacent regions;The upgrading of industrial structure in the western region helps to reduce carbon emission intensity and has a significant negative spillover effect.