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Spatiotemporal Evolution And Health Risk Assessment Of Ozone Pollution In China

Posted on:2024-02-27Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y K YangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2531307142456614Subject:Safety science and engineering
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With the continual urbanization and industrialization of China,the emissions of pollutants from residents and industries have been increasing.The emission of large amounts of volatile organic compounds(VOCs)and nitrogen oxides(NO_x)results in the continuous rise of ozone concentration in the atmosphere,which has a negative impact on human health.This pollution not only threatens the health of residents but also affects the safety and sustainable development of cities.Based on ozone concentration data from nearly 1500 monitoring stations in China from 2015 to 2020.The study comprehensively employed spatial autocorrelation,hot spot analysis,wavelet analysis,HYSPLIT backward trajectory analysis,anomalies analysis,regression analysis,and health benefit evaluation models to analyze spatiotemporal distribution and interannual variation characteristics,anomalous features of ozone concentration,and the relationship between ozone pollution and the El Ni(?)o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and meteorological anomalies.The study also investigated the impact of ozone pollution on human health and the economic losses associated with it,combined with health impact functions and value measurement functions.The study found that:(1)From 2015 to 2019,the aggregation effect of ozone pollution continued to increase,but in 2020,it decreased significantly.Compared with the previous year,the annual average ozone concentration rose by 8.72%and 1.76%in 2017 and 2018,respectively.And it dropped by 3.60%and 3.66%in 2019 and 2020,respectively.The peak value and the number of high-value days of hot spot ozone concentration were higher than those of cold spot ozone concentration,except for the cold spot area in 2019and 2020,where the high-value days were higher than the hot spot area.The semi-annual and seasonal scale signals were stronger in southern China than in northern China.The intra-seasonal and synoptic scale oscillation signals were stronger in the warm part of the year than in the cold part of the year.(2)The period of high ozone concentration was mainly from April to October,with summer as the core and spreading to late spring and early autumn.The core high concentration areas were mainly concentrated in North China in spring and summer,but the core gradually shifted to South China and Southeast China in autumn.The national ozone concentration showed a negative anomaly(2015-2016)-positive anomaly(2017-2018)-mixed positive and negative anomaly(2019-2020)trend.In most stations,the ozone concentration was higher in spring and summer,lower in autumn and winter,with the peak value in summer and the valley value in winter,showing an inverted"U"distribution.From 2015 to 2018,ozone concentrations in southern China increased continuously in autumn and spring,and ozone concentrations were valley in winter or summer.From 2018 to 2020,ozone concentrations in spring and summer slightly decreased,but concentrations in autumn and winter increased instead.In 2020,the ozone concentration in the summer and autumn in the coastal areas of South China and Southeast China was slightly lower than that in 2019.(3)In China,the positive(negative)ozone concentration anomalies were related to the negative phase of ENSO La Ni(?)a(positive phase of ENSO El Ni(?)o).In North China,East China,Inner Mongolia,and South China,changes in temperature,radiation,wind direction,and wind speed under the influence of El Ni(?)o/La Ni(?)a jointly affected the trend of ozone concentration.In spring,relative atmospheric circulation and wind speed,solar radiation,and precipitation might be the key factors affecting ozone pollution in northern China.In summer,temperature was the key factor for ozone pollution in northern China,while ozone pollution in southern China was also significantly affected by atmospheric circulation,wind speed,and precipitation,with radiation having a less significant impact.In autumn,ozone pollution was greatly influenced by atmospheric circulation,wind speed,and precipitation.In winter,relative temperature and solar radiation were the main influencing factors of ozone pollution in China,while the Southeast coastal region was also greatly affected by precipitation and atmospheric circulation.(4)From 2015 to 2018,the health effects of ozone pollution in China during the warm season gradually increased,but they began to decrease from 2019.The total number of premature deaths in 2019 decreased by 4.56%compared to that in 2018,and it further decreased by 8.62%in 2020 compared to that in 2019.The cities with the highest number of premature deaths due to all causes in the six years were located in North China,Central China,and Southwest China.The regions with a lower number of premature deaths were mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia,the northern part of Northeast China,Northwest China,and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.The ozone pollution caused fewer premature deaths in the cold season than in the warm season from 2015 to2020,but the total premature deaths and premature deaths due to a single disease increased from 2017 to 2019,decreased in 2020 compared to 2019,and increased the most by 19.01%in 2019 compared to that in 2018.Compared with the warm season,the cities with more premature deaths in the cold season were more concentrated in South China,East China,and North China.(5)During the warm season from 2015 to 2020,the health and economic losses caused by ozone pollution in China gradually increased from 2015 to 2019 and decreased in 2020.The cities with higher health and economic losses caused by ozone pollution were mainly located in North China,Central China,and Southwest China.During the cold season from 2015 to 2020,the health and economic losses caused by ozone pollution in the cold season increased each year from 2015 to 2019,with a smallest increase in 2016 and the greatest increase in 2019,and decreased in 2020compared to 2019 but remained higher than that in 2018.The cities with higher health and economic losses caused by ozone pollution in the cold season were mainly located in South China and East China.
Keywords/Search Tags:ozone, spatiotemporal distribution, El Ni(?)o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO), health risks, economic losses
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