Analysis On The Embodied Carbon And Its Influencing Factors Of Chinese Provinces’ Exports To EU Under The Background Of Carbon Border Adjustment

The EU proposed the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM)to better achieve the nationally determined contribution and carbon neutrality goals.The EU is one of China’s most important trading partners,and the trade between China and the EU is of great significance to China’s foreign trade development.At present,the proportion of high-energy-consuming products in China’s export products is still relatively high.China’s export trade is more likely to be affected by CBAM.After the EU implements CBAM,China’s export products cost will increase.This paper uses the self-constructed CPGR model(Chinese Provinces in Global Regions input-output model)to measure the embodied carbon emissions of trade between China and the EU at the provincial and industrial levels,and uses the SDA method to analyze the impact of direct carbon emission intensity,input-output structure,export structure and export scale on the embodied carbon of Chinese provinces exporting to the EU.The results show that: in 2017,China exports to EU contained250.16 million tons of carbon,a decrease of 17.79 million tons compared with 2012;under the assumption that the CBAM certificate price is 74.92 euros per ton,the carbon tariff corresponding to the embodied carbon exported to EU in 2012 and 2017 reached about 20 billion euros;in 2017,China net export of carbon embodied in trade with Europe was 182.57 million tons,a decrease of 17% compared with 2012,but it is still a net exporter of embodied carbon in China-EU trade,and except for Beijing,which was a net embodied carbon importer in 2017,the rest of the provinces and cities were all net embodied carbon exporters in 2012 and 2017;China’s carbon emissions from exports to EU are mainly concentrated in Jiangsu,Guangdong,Shandong,Inner Mongolia,Hebei,Zhejiang,Liaoning,Henan,Shanxi,Shanghai,Zhejiang and Xinjiang which export carbon emissions account for more than 66% of China export carbon emissions to EU;whether at the national or provincial level,the main carbon emission industries exported to Europe are water and electricity supply and waste treatment,transportation and warehousing,quarrying and mining which account for more than 87% of carbon emissions from exports to EU;direct carbon emission intensity and input-output structure are the main driving factors for carbon emission reduction in most provinces and industries.In order to deal with the possible adverse effects of CBAM on my country,first of all,my country should join other developing countries in a similar situation to expressly oppose the implementation of CBAM.Secondly,it is necessary for my country and all provinces and cities to take emission reduction measures according to the actual situation,such as improving energy utilization,improving input-output structure,promoting technological progress,and promoting low-carbon transformation of industries,reducing the input and use of carbon-intensive raw materials in the production process,improving the export structure of trade to EU,and reducing the export of high-carbon products,etc.