Study On System Dynamics Model Of Natural Gas Market Demand

As a high-quality energy with green and clean,low-carbon and high efficiency,natural gas can complement and coordinate with other renewable energy.The opinions on accelerating the utilization of natural gas jointly issued by the national development and Reform Commission and other 13 departments specifically put forward that accelerating the clean utilization of natural gas and increasing the proportion of natural gas consumption in energy utilization is the only way for China to continue to steadily and orderly promote the energy revolution,build China’s modern comprehensive energy system,actively deal with climate change and promote high-quality green development.Combined with multiple factors such as social and political development,economic development and COVID-19,this paper sorts out the current situation of supply and demand in the world and China’s natural gas market.Due to the complexity of factors affecting natural gas consumption and various research methods,after analysis and comparison,this paper decides to use the logarithmic average Di exponential decomposition method(LMDI)to quantitatively decompose the influencing factors of China’s overall natural gas consumption and two main gas consuming industries such as industrial gas and urban gas from 2010 to 2020,so as to analyze the reasons for the development of China’s natural gas consumption market.Based on the analysis of the system structure and causal feedback relationship of the natural gas market,after weighing and comparing various prediction methods,this paper decides to establish the system dynamics model of the demand of the natural gas market based on the system dynamics theory and using the Vensim software that can consider multiple factors.With reference to the prospect reports issued by the government and the industry and the scientific conclusions of relevant experts and scholars,eight natural gas development scenarios are set,and the change trend of natural gas in China in the future is predicted by adjusting the corresponding scenario parameters in the model.The forecast results show that by 2030,China’s natural gas consumption is expected to reach 564.4～664.1 billion cubic meters,of which industrial gas and urban gas will reach 202.8～250.4 billion cubic meters and 187.2～216.6 billion cubic meters respectively,which are still the two main gas industries,while the demand for gas for power generation will increase to 131.4～159 billion cubic meters;In terms of consumption structure,the consumption proportion of chemical gas,industrial gas and urban gas has decreased to varying degrees,while the proportion of power generation gas will rise sharply.Finally,combined with the analysis of influencing factors and demand forecast,this paper puts forward targeted suggestions for the future development of China’s natural gas market,and summarizes the shortcomings of this paper.