Research On Urban Accident Risk Assessment Method Based On Catastrophe Theory

The rapid advancement of technology and accelerated urbanization have led to a diverse range of accident hazards and a significant increase in their frequency.Major safety incidents in urban areas occur frequently,necessitating a pressing need to mitigate risks and enhance risk prevention capabilities.Given the multitude of influencing factors,uncertainties,and complex interdependencies associated with urban accident risks,this study investigates the internal structure and risk mechanisms of nonlinear urban accident systems using catastrophe theory and analytical methods.The primary focus is on the development of a quantifiable,multi-factor risk assessment methodology for urban accidents based on catastrophe theory.The specific research objectives are as follows:(1)Analysis and determination of the inherent structure and constituent elements of urban accident risk systems,incorporating catastrophe theory into urban accident risk assessment.By reviewing previous research and relevant standards,it is established that the urban accident risk system comprises a complex nonlinear system consisting of risk systems and risk response systems.This review summarizes the current state of catastrophe theory and existing urban accident risk assessment methods,which are then integrated into urban accident risk assessment practices.(2)Construction of a multi-factor assessment model for urban accident risks based on catastrophe theory,exploring the mechanisms of various factors within the urban accident risk system,and providing a quantitative approach for assessing urban accident risks involving multiple factors.By considering the establishment conditions of different catastrophe models,a suitable catastrophe model for urban accident risk systems is selected.Using the cusp catastrophe model as an example,a qualitative analysis of the urban accident risk system’s structure is conducted to elucidate its changing trends under varying conditions.The validity of the proposed model is demonstrated through the analysis of real-world accident case studies.(3)Practical application and analysis.A specific administrative district in Tianjin City is selected as a case study to assess accident risks.A catastrophe model for assessing accident risks is constructed based on the district’s specific risk characteristics.Basic indicator data is collected through on-site investigations and literature reviews.The state value of the accident risk system in the district is calculated using the catastrophe rank method,yielding an urban accident risk assessment value of 0.6851,indicating a relatively favorable level.The assessment effectively identifies vulnerable areas within the urban accident risk system and comprehensively determines the level of accident risk.The results underscore the objectivity and practicality of the proposed urban accident risk assessment methodology based on catastrophe theory,contributing to the advancement of urban accident risk management practices.