Land Use Carbon Emissions Of Coal Resource-Based City

Global warming caused by carbon emissions has gradually threatened the health of human society and ecological safety,and has far-reaching effects on future human development,so carbon emission reduction research is crucial to global sustainable development.Although many scholars have been engaged in various types of carbon emission research,few scholars have focused their research on land use carbon emissions(LUCEs)in coal resource-based cities.In order to understand the characteristic trends and change impacts of LUCEs in coal resource-based cities,this study adopted the emission factor method proposed by IPCC to construct an urban land use carbon emission model.Based on it,the carbon source and sink characteristics of land use in Huainan,a coal resource-based city,were carved out for the period1991-2020,taking Huainan as the study area.Meanwhile,the main driving factors of land use carbon emission changes in Huainan were identified through the constructed the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)and Tapio decoupling model,and the coordination of land use carbon emissions with economic growth in Huainan was analyzed.Finally,the future trend of land use carbon emissions in Huainan is predicted by scenario analysis,and suggestions for measures to reduce land use carbon emissions and achieve low-carbon sustainable development of the city are proposed in the context of the current land use situation in Huainan.The conclusions are as follows:(Ⅰ)The total carbon emissions from land use in Huainan City increased significantly from 1991 to 2020,and the LUCEs reached 26.94 million tons in 2020,which was 4.9 times higher than that in 1991.During the study period,the carbon sources and the carbon sinks of different land use types showed an increasing trend,and the carbon sources of land use were always higher than the carbon sinks,which were about 20 times higher than the carbon sinks.This indicates that the increase of carbon sources is the direct cause of the growth of LUCEs in coal-based cities.Thus,it is optimal to control the carbon sources rather than the growth of carbon sinks to reduce the land use carbon emission.After all,the effect of carbon sink growth on carbon emission reduction is extremely limited in the short term.(Ⅱ)The five driving factors show different effects on LUCEs in Huainan City from 1991 to 2020.In terms of cumulative effects,economic development and built-up land change are the main influencing factors for the growth of LUCEs in Huainan City.Meanwhile,energy structure and energy efficiency have inhibitory effects,while energy efficiency contributes more to land use carbon emission reduction than energy structure.Since China’s energy system will be dominated by fossil energy such as coal in the long term,optimization of the energy structure is important to reduce land use carbon emissions for the coal-based city.(Ⅲ)The decoupling elasticity of economic growth and LUCEs in Huainan shows a synergistic relationship in the coal-based city development stage,showing different decoupling effects.Except for individual years showing negative decoupling effects(1997,2000,2008 and 2013-2014),the remaining years are generally favorable to achieve future decoupling of economic growth from LUCEs.The decoupling analysis suggests that the relationship between LUCEs of coal-based cities and economic growth and social development will slowly transit to a more stable decoupling state in the future with the LUCEs of coal-based cities being effectively controlled.(Ⅳ)There is a significant difference in the timing of the peak of LUCEs in the three scenarios,with the peak falling in the range of 25-35 million tons.In LC and ELC,Huainan City can reach the peak of carbon emissions in 2030 or earlier.This result indicates that Huainan City is highly likely to reach the peak of carbon emissions by 2030 if its policy measures are effectively implemented.Based on the above analysis,this study proposes three specific measures to improve the direction from the perspective of land use,carbon emission reduction and sustainable development of coal resource-based cities: Ⅰ)Optimizing the land use structure.Ⅱ)Improving the energy structure system.Ⅲ)Transforming the economic development mode of coal-based cities.It is hoped that this study will not only extend the study of land use carbon emissions at the level of coal resource-based cities,and also promote the low-carbon sustainable development of resource-based cities in China.Figure 15;table 9;reference 132...