Spatial Distribution Characteristics And Mortality Prediction Of Malignant Tumors In Urumqi

Objective:To understand the spatial distribution characteristics of the incidence and death of malignant tumors in Urumqi,predict the death trend of malignant tumors in Urumqi through time series model,and provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of malignant tumors in Urumqi.Methods:incidence rate,standardized incidence rate,mortality,standardized mortality and other indicators were used to analyze the prevalence of cancer incidence and death;Use Excel 2016 to filter and sort out the data,and standardize the rate by taking the 2010 national census population as the standard;Based on the death data of malignant tumors from 2015 to 2021,ARIMA model and Holt-Winters model were established through R 4.0.3 software.The evaluation model indexes include absolute error(MAE),root mean square error(RMSE)and mean absolute error percentage(MAPE)to evaluate the fitting and prediction effects of the model.Based on the electronic map of Urumqi in 2022 provided by the Basic Geographic Information Center of Urumqi Urban Survey and Mapping Institute,the spatial autocorrelation analysis was carried out using Arc GIS 10.8 software to explore the distribution of malignant tumor incidence and death in Urumqi in 2021.The difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).Results:1)28663 cases of malignant tumor in Urumqi from 2015 to 2021 were collected in this study;The standardized incidence rate of malignant tumors in Urumqi was163.98/100000 from 2015 to 2021.The incidence rate of malignant tumors in women was higher than that in men from 2015 to 2021,with a statistically significant difference(~2=577.86,P<0.05);The incidence rate of malignant tumors increases with age,and the growth rate is large for those over 45 years old,and the incidence rate is the highest at 80 years old;The average development rate of incidence rate of malignant tumors is 95.26%,and the rate of decline is 4.74%every year;The standardized incidence rate was the highest in 2018(236.89/100000)and the lowest in 2020(124.60/100000);Among patients with malignant tumors,the top five tumors were thyroid cancer,breast cancer,lung cancer,stomach cancer,and colorectal cancer.2)This study collected 20192 cases of malignant tumor deaths in Urumqi from2015-2021;From 2015 to 2021,the standardized mortality rate of malignant tumors in Urumqi was 84.46/100000;In 2015-2021,the mortality rate of men with malignant tumors was higher than that of women,with statistically significant difference(~2=58.41,P<0.05);The death rate of malignant tumors increases with the increase of age,with a large increase rate over 50 years old,and the death rate of people over 85 years old is the highest;Among the marital status,the proportion of married deceased was 78.27%,and the proportion was relatively flat between 2015 and 2021;Among the malignant tumor deaths with different educational backgrounds,62.77%of them were from junior high school or below,accounting for the largest proportion,with a small change between 2015 and 2021;The average development rate of malignant tumor mortality was 96.66%,and decreased by 3.34%every year.The death level was the lowest in 2021(70.29/100000),and the highest in2019(103.17/100000).The top five cancers in the death of malignant tumors were lung cancer,liver cancer,stomach cancer,colorectal cancer,pancreatic cancer,and prostate cancer.3)By comparing the predicted results of ARIMA model and Holt-Winters model with the actual value,the results showed that the death of malignant tumors in Urumqi showed a downward trend.The result of Holt-Winters additive model was the best(RMSE=20.83,MAE=16.53,MAPE=7.25%).The death of malignant tumors in Urumqi showed a downward trend.4)There is a significant positive correlation between the incidence and death of malignant tumors in Urumqi in the spatial distribution(Z>1.96,P<0.05).The high-high concentration areas and hot spots of the incidence are concentrated in the northeast and southwest of the city;Death is mainly concentrated in the central part of the city.Conclusion:Malignant tumors pose a serious threat to the life and health of Urumqi citizens.It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of tumors among people over 45years of age,and strengthen the prevention and control of cancers that account for a high proportion of morbidity and mortality,such as lung cancer,thyroid cancer,breast cancer,liver cancer and other cancers,and focus on the hot streets in the middle,northeast and southwest of Urumqi to strengthen prevention and control measures.