Research On Commercial Film Copyright Valuation Based On B-S Model

The report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that "enriching the people’s spiritual world" should be an essential requirement of Chinese-style modernization,so as to boost cultural confidence and create new glory in socialist culture.By 2035,China aims to build a strong socialist culture.China attaches more and more importance to the development of the cultural industry.As an important part of the cultural industry,the development of the film industry cannot be underestimated.According to relevant data,the total box office of Chinese films continued to rise from 2015 to 2019,reaching a new high of 64.148 billion yuan in 2019.With the rapid development of the film industry,there are more and more problems caused by the film copyright.For example,it is difficult to determine the value of the film when it is invested,financed and sold,which makes more and more people pay attention to the value of the film copyright.However,our country does not have a complete system to evaluate the film copyright value at present,which can not provide reference for the copyright trade parties.Therefore,how to solve these problems to make the healthy development of the film industry is very important.This paper takes this as the starting point,takes the development status of the Chinese film industry as the premise,and uses the method of multiple linear regression model,income method and real option method to evaluate the film copyright value,hoping to provide some evaluation ideas for the copyright value evaluation industry.Promote prosperity and development of Chinese film industry.First of all,this paper expounds the background and significance of the research,and reviews the relevant literature at home and abroad on the film industry chain,the influencing factors of box office revenue and their prediction models,and the film copyright value evaluation.Secondly,it introduces the technical terms and relevant theories involved in the article,analyzes the applicability of three basic evaluation methods to film copyright evaluation,focuses on the analysis of the relevant theories and methods of real options,as well as the characteristics of real options for film copyright.Therefore,this paper attempts to predict the box office revenue of movies through multiple linear regression model,and then evaluates the static use value of movie copyright combined with income method,and then evaluates the derivative products in the later stage of movies through B-S model to obtain the dynamic option value of movie copyright,and finally the value of movie copyright is the sum of the two.In this paper,considering the major impact of the epidemic on the film and television industry in 2020,45 top red films in the past ten years except 2020 are selected as samples when establishing the box office revenue prediction model.Ten influential factors,including director,actors and script content,are taken as independent variables,and box office revenue is taken as dependent variable.The collected data are quantified.Import Eviews software to get multiple linear regression model,and adjust the model through parameter and model test,and finally get the red movie box office revenue prediction model.Taking the film "Changjin Lake" as an example,this paper evaluates its copyright value and predicts that the box office revenue of the film "Changjin Lake" is 5.228 billion yuan,the static value is 18,843,12600 yuan,the dynamic value is 627,220,600 yuan,and the assessed final copyright value is 2.521 billion yuan.Finally,this paper summarizes and concludes the research,analyzes the existing shortcomings,and puts forward the prospect of the future film copyright value assessment.