| This paper analyzes the current situation of the development of China’s online literature copyright operation industry and learns that after twenty-five years of development,China’s online literature copyright industry has had a great impact both at home and abroad,with an annual output value of up to one hundred billion according to statistics,and online literature works and their derivatives are gradually recognized by mainstream society and have won many awards in the cultural,film and television industries.Compared with the West,China’s copyright operation development time period,less variety,but relying on the prosperity of network literature has also come out of a new path.In the rapid development stage of online literature,theoretical research tends to lag behind practical needs,and the theoretical community cannot keep up with the needs of practical development in the study of online literature copyright value assessment.It makes the price of online literature copyright transactions deviate from its true value.This paper aims to build a scientific and reasonable assessment model to contribute to the theoretical and practical circles.Based on value chain theory,life cycle theory and innovation diffusion theory,this paper decomposes the online literature copyright operation industry chain,divides it into upstream,midstream and downstream,understands the value transformation value-added process of each link of the industry chain,and proposes value transformation characteristics for film and television adaptation which is in the midstream.At the same time,by studying the historical development of the online literature copyright industry,we understand that it is currently at maturity stage,and after the barbaric development in the early stage,each company is more rational and gradually finds the development mode,and put forward evaluation suggestions for the characteristics of maturity stage relying on fan economy.With the above-mentioned research,the three major value influencing factors of online literature works,copyright operation and macro environment are summarized,and a value index system of online literature copyright film and television is constructed,which in turn provides the market with a means to identify quality works.Based on the above research,this paper attempts to predict the revenue of online literature copyright film and television development scenario from the perspective of fan economy,mainly measuring paid users,rate of conversion and average user purchase.Combined with the characteristics of the value of online literature copyright,it is decided to adopt the idea of revenue method for evaluation.In terms of revenue term,it is understood that the production cycle of film and TV drama is often 2 years;in terms of discount rate,it is determined by the risk accrual method and capital asset pricing model;the share rate is calculated by constructing a hierarchical analysis matrix on the basis of the above online literature copyright value index system,which is scored by experts.After constructing the revenue prediction model and putting forward the calculation ideas for the relevant parameters,this paper takes "One Mind Eternal" as an example,first preliminary evaluation it,and then specifically assesses the conversion value of the work,and finally gets the conversion value of "One Mind Eternal" to be 20.9 million yuan,and after excluding the general price increase in the industry and currency inflation factors,the value is similar to the copyright transaction price in 2016.Therefore this appraised value is credible to some extent. |