Study Of Crowd Crushing And Trampling Accident Risk Theory And Applied To Stadium

In many large crowd, there is a potential for injury and even loss of life rusulting from the dynamics of the crowd's behavior. Given the increasing number of large-scale sporting events, religious gathering, and rock concerts with time, the issue of crowd safety is of growing importance following the society development. The many crowd-related disasters (that is, fatal accident) over the past decade have demonstrated the possible lethal consequences of large gatherings of people. The happen all at once and the consequence is serious with crowd crushing and trampling accident contrast to fire. But every accidents and disasters have the interior law, we must develop the study for the crowd crushing and trampling in theory to avoid the potential energy release in the gathering people.The mechanics of human crowds is complex. The theory study for the crowd crushing and trampling accident is very significance for the building performance-design, crowd evacuation and management. The aim of this study is putting forward the crowd crushing and trampling acciednt risk theory and establish the risk model.Through the accident data and observation in scene we have a in-depth study to the individual move rule. And indicating the individual move pass four phases in emergency: free move, stranded, crushing and trampling if accident happen. And if crowd evacuation safely four phases of individual move including free move, stranded, crushing and evacuation. The stranded and crushing are the important phases for the crowd crushing and evacuation accident. Hereby crowd crushing and trampling accident risk (four phase) theory was put forward and the relational risk theory model was modelled.The risk theory model isn't able to solve in current phase. A Stranded Crowd number quantitative Model (SCM) was put forward based on the relation of crowd flow and density. We can calculated the probability of crowd crushing and trampling risk through the SCM calculated results divided by total design people number. But the consequence of risk couldn't resolve with the mathematic method, so the crowd crushing microscopic simulation model was found based on the'society force'model. The'crushing force'was put forward to explain the cause of crowd casualty during the evacuation process, and we can solve the'crushing force'model through the momentum theorem with"magnetic force"model.The implement of microscopic simulation model need the computer simulation technology. We construct the hiberarchy of crowd crushing and trampling simulation system through the technology of MAS. Combine the crushing micrososmic simulation model develop the Crowd Crushing and Trampling Simulation system for Egress (CroC&Ts-Egress) with cross-platform multi-agent programmable modeling environment'NetLogo'.The application of all the models is the egress of Tianjin Olympic Center Stadium, and three parts are included in this paper. First, we calculated the stranded crowd number with SCM in the egress area; Second, a computational Evacuation Discrete Time Model (EDTM) has been presented to analyze the building egress evacuation time problem with previous works, and a comparison of EDTM, previous model and computer simulation indicates that both the EDTM and the simulation curves were found to give better predictions than the previous model; Third, a simulation was utilized with CroC&Ts-Egress for the different width egress, the simulation results contrast to the SCM calculation results indicate there are the same.