Research On Construction Of Maritime Integrated Assessment Method Based On FSA (MIAM-FSA) And Its Applications

Maritime Safety has important relations with the life at sea, property damage and marine environmental protection. It is always an important research field of international maritime community since the beginning of the 20th century. Assessment and quantification of maritime safety is another hot topic within nearly 20 years. In the 1990s, Britain experts proposed Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) method based on safety system engineering, safety management and risk management theories. FSA method can be used as a structured and systematic analysis methodology in the ship engineering design, shipping safety management and rule-making process. From then on, many researchers, institutes, related maritime organizations and individuals have studied on FSA method in different extent. Based on abundantly references to those results, the author has thoroughly analyzed the theory and application principles of FSA method, finding two limitations. First, the familiar method was used to assess some risk object directly. The choice of method is random and the applicability of the method is doubtful. Second, there are a lack of the bidirectional applicability judgments between assessment method and object, and few operation mechanisms, causing the FSA assessment results less validity. Therefore, the decision-making suggestions are still short of scientific basis.According to the two limitations mentioned above, coupling criterion between assessment methods and objects was established and multi-method combination assessment (CA) was adopted, and then integrated application method based on FSA was constructed to enrich the contents of FSA framework. The aim is to make FSA method become a universal method for various maritime objects.This paper mainly includes the contents as follows:Firstly, the advantages and disadvantages of FSA method were analyzed in order to explore the breakthrough of this paper: Hundreds of references related to the FSA method were read and studied. The references cover the vast majority of the domestic and foreign literature and writings of FSA method from the year of 1993 to 2008. Some important articles were classified and studied in detail to sum up the achievements already made, and also to find out the common problems restricting the further development of FSA method. On this basis, the FSA's research hotspots, limitations and the possible trend of development were analyzed, and then the importance and necessity of establishing the assessment quality system was drawn correspondingly, which is the starting point of further research. The author spent large amounts of time on the preparatory work which laid a solid foundation for the layout and structure of the whole text. At the same time, the preparatory work also provided the breakthrough for further research and for the construction of platform for the integrated application method based on FSA (MIAM-FSA) .Secondly, property analysis of FSA method and related basic theories were studied systematically. The author made deeply research on the safety science, especially, (modern) safety management, (modern) risk management and safety system engineering. Based on that, property of FSA method was analyzed, providing theoretical foundation and principle that the basic ideas and methods of safety management, risk management and safety system engineering can be introduced to the framework of the FSA method directly. Fuzzy logic control theory has been applied to the second step of FSA (risk assessment) in order to make a fine classification of risk degree and then to realize the artificial simulation in MATLAB software. Those two parts of work are still the originality in the field of FSA method related, and lays a solid theoretical foundation for the next step research.Thirdly, some novel methods which ensured assessment quality were studied. The methods each step of FSA method involved were studied and the attributes of some commonly used methods were analyzed and discussed. Through the analysis on the large number of works, 49 kinds of methods were classified into 13 categories which provided a valuable reference for the selection of the assessment methods coupling with the objects. The properties of assessment methods and the object were extracted respectively to construct the coupling judgment criterion between them. Then, the relation of coupling algorithm was given to make a preliminary test for the applicability of the methods chosen. Multiple Clusters Analysis (MCA) was adopted to find out the Consistency Set (CS), and then the convergence of multi-results caused by multi-methods was studied in order to acquire a correct model result, which fused the useful information of multi-methods and enhanced the assessment quality. This part of work solved a disadvantage that limit and restrict FSA's further development: Lack of system to assure the assessment qualityFourthly, four new models were established to solve the problems which must be overcome during the researches. First of all, relation model of risk, safety and danger was established to explain the logic relations of them. Second, hazard identification model was established to identify the various hazards. Hazard identification is the prerequisite of risk assessment. Third, Integrated Assessment Model of Channel Safety (IAMCS) was constructed. Finally, IAMCS based on the strong CS was constructed. IAMCS will be introduced in the next two paragraphes.Fifthly, MIAM-FSA was studied in chapter four. After the whole studies on the assessment methods, emphasis was put on CA of the multi-methods, including the researches on the comparison between single method and multi-methods, on the process of multi-methods and essence of it, on the CS of multi-results, on the convergence of multi-results caused by multi-methods and on the compatibility between CA and FSA method. After solved the problems above, maritime system was made into subset partition in order to construct specific integrated assessment model for different subset. Based on specific integrated assessment model for each subset, the platform for MIAM-FSAwas constructed subsequently. This part of work absorbed basic theories, assessment methods, coupling judgment between assessment methods and objects, judgment mechanism of compatible methods based on multiple clusters analysis, convergence model of CA. And it is the concentrated reflection of several research achievements mentioned above. It has a high sense of integrated innovation.Sixthly, IAMCS was constructed in chapter five. In order to verify the operation of the MIAM-FSA constructed, one of those subsets (channel safety) was selected as an assessed object. Matter Element Analysis Method, Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method, Information Entropy Method, Principal Component Analysis Mehtod, Factor Analysis Method, TOPSIS Method and Correlation Analysis Method were used for the constrction of IAMCS. IAMCS Model has considered the coupling judgment between assessment methods and objects, judgment of CS based on MCA, the convergence and fusion of multi-results caused by multi-methods. The construction of IAMCS tested the feasibility of the platform for the MIAM-FSA, enriched the assessment of channel safety and has a strong practical significance.Seventhly, the test, fixation and universal adaptability of IAMCS model were studied in chapter six and seven. IAMCS model was applied to the channel safety assessment of the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province (from Liuhe to Jiangyin waterways) altogether 7 sections aiming to test and fix the model. After MCA method was made, IAMCS model based on the strong CS was constructed which included five kinds of assessment methods (Matter Element Analysis Method, Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method, Information Entropy Method, TOPSIS Method and Correlation Analysis Method). In order to test the universal adaptability, IAMCS model based on the strong CS was applied to the channel safety assessment of the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province (from Taixing to Nanjing waterways) altogether 8 sections, which also achieved a good result. Those practical applications showed the specific model based on mathematical methods can withstand the practice test. It has a sense of universal adaptability for the sorting problem of channel safety and can be widely used and promoted in related fields.Finally, the scope of the maritime risk assessment and the partition of maritime assessment objects were studied. The author has an undergraduate study in Merchant Marine College, three years of sailing experiences on board, and continues to pursue the master and doctoral degree in navigation department. So both in theory and practice, he has more profound understanding of the maritime industry. On the basis of facts mentioned above and enough investigation, a relatively complete system of the maritime risk assessment was provided. Subset partition of maritime system laid a foundation for constructing special integrated application method based on FSA. In addition, selecting channel safety, especially, the Yangtze River in Jiangsu as an assessed object is according to the projects he has done, which includes Research on Maritime Development Plan in Jiangsu Province, Research on 11^th Five-Year Plan in Shanghai Pilot Station, and Research on Adaptability of Maritime Law of Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province.Practice has proved that MIAM-FSA and corresponding IAMCS model can get more accurate and scientific results due to coupling judgment between assessment methods and objects, judgment mechanism of compatible methods based on MCA, convergence model and fusion mechanism of results from CA. Therefore, it can assure the assessment quality of FSA method from the theories and principles. Because the internal operation mechanism of the model has a strong adaptability, it can be widely applied to other maritime safety-related areas, such as port environmental assessment, ship company assessment and ship pilot assessment and so onAt the same time, Relevant supporting software and calculating tools were used correspondingly while some theories and methods were used. For example, Matlab software was applied to realize the simulation for the fine partition of risk degree. SPSS software was applied to solve the results of Factor Analysis Method. Spreadsheet System Modeling Technique was applied to solve the results of Matter Element Analysis Method and Excel software was applied to solve the results of Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Method. Softwares were learned and the cumbersome process of calculation is simplified accordingly and it is also important to Wide the author's knowledge and vision during the operation.