Research On Risk Management And Optimization Decision-making Theory And Their Applications In Water Resources System

As an important natural resource, water is the basis of social economic development for mankind. Many challenges that many countries are faced with are more related with water during the economic and social development. Water shortage, water quality worsening, and floodwater are among the main noticeable problems. Thus it is of much significance to study, manage and deploy water resources, since it is in favor of sustainable utilization and development with population, economy, society and environment. It includes many management and decision-making problems when people develop, utilize and manage water resources. Meanwhile, since there is much uncertainty in water resources system, which increase difficulty and inevitably bring risk, so decision-making and risk exist at one time under many environments. From all above, it is a basic work to study proper evaluation and decision-making model and risk management method for water resources problem, which is also the destination of this paper. Since there are many evaluation and decision-making problems from the feasibility research to investment construction and operation management of water resources engineering, this paper is focus on the study of evaluation, decision-making and risk management for water resources system from a more basically decision-making theory and risk management method, which relates theory with practice in water resources. The main contents and research results are as follows:(1) Flood disaster is the heaviest disaster of the natural disasters in our country. Flood risk is inevitable, but the flood disaster loss can be reduced. The task of flood risk management is to adjust the relation between people and nature and among people with flood risk, which can prompt the harmonious development and realize the long-term and maximal benefit of flood prevention system. Based on the basic concept of risk in flood prevention system, this paper analyzed flood risk, and then introduced the present research in the field of flood risk management, and given the strategic model of flood risk management, and then discussed the relation between flood prevention and sustainable development. Finally, several pieces of advice are given to support risk management in flood prevention system.(2) Flood insurance is one of an important non-structural measure to manage flood risk. This paper introduced the present state of flood insurance among some countries, and applies economics, insurance theory, system engineering in the analysis and study of flood insurance. Then the inherent property and law of flood insurance were revealed. Then the demand characteristic of flood insurance and the affection of flood insurance fee rate changes to theinsured are analyzed from the point of insurers and the insured. Next the utility model of flood insurance was built, which play a big role in carrying food insurance into execution. Finally, some advices are proposed to perform flood insurance completely according to the situation of our country.(3) The multi-objective group decision-making problem under risk is common in reality. This paper focuses on the study about risky multi-objective group decision-making problem where the index value is not certain. We give indexes classifying method and normalization formula of this type problem. By building objective function that minimizes general weighted distance from every alternative to the relatively best and worst alternative, then the optimal membership degree of every decision-maker to every alternative can be obtained, and By building another objective function that minimizes general weighted distance from the optimal membership degree of every decision-maker to every alternative to the group optimal alternative and the group inferior alternative, then the optimal membership degree of every decision-maker to every alternative can be obtained, which are on both probability theory and fuzzy theory. Aftermost a model is established which collects group preferences. This method provides a new idea and approach for solving mult...