Research On Some Problems On The Traffic Prediction In The Phase Of Feasibility Research Of High-grade Highway Projects

This thesis discusses some problems on the traffic prediction in the phase of feasibility research of high-grade highway projects in the following five aspects. First, the article systematically elaborates the current traffic prediction system in our country and illuminates, analyzes and concludes the existing problems and their reasons by taking account into some post-estimation reports on highway performance. Second, the relationship between regional traffic and socio economy are discussed qualitatively and quantitatively by introducing main influencing factors such as the traffic data of different provinces, highways and regions (the whole country is divided into eastern, central and western areas), corresponding economic volume (taking gross domestic production as the standard) and the travel distance. Third, the paper introduces the operating contents and working principles of each stage of the current four-stage traffic predicting method and representative models. Fourth, the paper proposes the method of predicting the traffic of tentative projects by combining the sufficient traffic data of national highway network provided by the observation stations, further expanding the application range of deducing OD theory by historic traffic of different roads. Finally, the thesis points out that the evaluation on highway projects and traffic prediction method must take into consideration the features of the tentative project and its functions in regional highway network, and then discusses the evaluating system on the highway system and functional influences of highway projects with the expectation to provide suggestions for future work.