The Study On Highway Traffic Volume Estimate Combined Methods And Its Application

The traffic volume prediction is one of the important compositions of feasibility research and post-valued of highway construction projects. It's the basis of necessity and feasibility of current-valued and synthetic analysis on the project. Also, it's the main according to ascertain the project's technical rank, construction scale, economic evaluation. So it has very important sense to study the traffic volume prediction.First, for the incorrect problems existing in the current traffic volume prediction in our country, the paper analyzes the reasons for the incorrect prediction, and finds the faults of the current predicting methods. It also concludes the predicting and analyses some methods to resolve the current incorrect conditions.Second, the paper analyzes the forming mechanism and the relevant facts on the highway traffic volume according to the composition of the traffic volume. Well the paper emphasizes on analyzing the forming mechanism and the influence facts about the transferring and the stimulating traffic volume.Third, the paper proposes two kinds of current predicting methods on the basis of two traffic volume conditions of constructed and constructing highways, respectively, and analyzes their special features and their using scopes.Last, the paper adopts mathematical models to predict perspective increasing order, synthetically making use of neural networks and four-steps method. It uses influencing factors analysis to ascertain some factors, which have deep relations to traffic volume. And it uses Matlab software bag to carry out the total volume. And also it combines OD matrix methods and four-steps methods to predict the generating, transferring, simulating volumes in the perspective years, gather them and gain the perspective traffic volume. When analyzing actual samples, some software as SPSS, DPS, TransCAD and so on, are used to simplify the accuracy and the efficiency.