Research On The Simulation & Evaluation Of Regional Water Security Strategy

Water is commonly considered as not only a strategically basic resource that supporting the coordinated and healthily sustained development of regional society and economy, but a factor that controlling the sustainable benign cycle between the regional ecosystem and the environment. Water security crisis is one of the most serious challenges to human's living, producing and development. Researches on scientific and reasonable regional water security strategy are of most importance to developments of regional economic society and ecological environment.This dissertation proposes the conception and the connotation of regional water security strategy, as well as attributes, characteristics, structure and its framework according to the principles and objectives of overall coordinated, sustained development of regional social economy and ecological environment. According to scientific development conception, a system dynamics model is established on thoughts of sustainable development, systematic analysis and strategy using a regional scale, which is a application of theory and methodology of system dynamics, basing on a systematic analysis on relations of interactive effects between the development of regional population, economy, society, ecology and environment and regional water security system. This model is used to carry a dynamic simulation of water security strategy and evaluate the effects resulting from the simulation.Based on conception of reasonableness and according to the overall, coordinated and sustained scientific development conception, the evaluation index system of regional water security is constructed and a GPPGE model is also developed in this dissertation combined with one of the improved real-code speedup genetic algorithms—projection trace approach. Scientific evaluation is executed on the new established model. The effects of measures of water security strategy to social economy and environment within a certain period to come are analyzed to provide the scientific basis for regional sustainable development. the lower reaches of North River in Guangdong province are considered as the case study to simulate dynamically the system of regional water strategy. Reasonableness evaluation is made on the simulation results. Conclusions and the relative suggestions are represented at the end of the dissertation.