Research On The Intelligent Decision Theory And Its Application To The System Analysis Of Lightened-MLRS

Some researches on the intelligent decision theory and its applications to system analysis of certain lightened-MLRS integrated schemes for lighten-improved development are done.Related basic theories of rough set (RS) and artificial neural network (ANN) are discussed. Some intelligent decision theories of RS are studied, which are used to exemplify the efficient of ChiMerge algorithmic. Enlightened by the image-thought and logic-thought of human, three different intelligent systems syncretized by RS and ANN and theirs modeling methods are studied.Some certain integrated schemes for lightened-MLRS are put forward, and theirs systems analysis are studied. Based on the realities of improvement, "0-1" index method and ADC model, the relative economical damage capacity index are put forwarded to calculate theirs fire striking capacity when theirs effectivenesses are calculated. The parameter-ANN effectiveness model is provided and verified with the prototype MLRS. And the sensitivity analysis of effectiveness is analyzed by parameter-ANN method, by which the qualitative guided advices for these four improvement integrated schemes are gottenThe research cost of each schemes are estimated. The grey GM forecasting model for the cost estimate of MLRS is built based on reality of rare samples, while grey accumulated error model is exemplified that it can not always improve the forecasting precision. The feature parameter fixing method by RS and parameter-RS-ANN method of cost estimate are put forward, whose precision is higher than GM model. So the effectiveness-cost is analyzed. And the estimated cost is revised based on analyzing the qualitative uncertainty by unascertained number theory and experiences of experts.The research risks of each scheme are analyzed. The step of DELPHI is mended by RS, by which the risk elements of each scheme are identified and reducted. Then these risk elements is denoted with tri-angle fuzzy number, and the risks value of all schemes are evaluated by the model combined fuzzy set theory and AHP. At last, the thought of risk analysis is system engineer is demonstrated, and the interpreted structure model (ISM) in system engineer theory is applied to the risk analysis for the first time, by which hierarchy structure model (HSM) and ISM of the scheme risk analysis is set up. With HSM and ISM, some guided advices for risk management are achieved.Based on the realities of lightened and cased improvement, the rough AHP (RAHP) is brought forward combined by the RS theory and analytical hierarchy process (AHP), in which the refining of index system, the mining of index weigh, and the judgment matrix with consistency are studied. Under RAHP theory, four lighten-improved integrated schemes is intelligent evaluated, from which the best candidate scheme is gotten.The theories and the implements of Rockets Weapons Integrated Scheme Intelligent Decision Support System (RWISIDSS) are studied. The contents, work flows and the total functions of decision module are researched, so does the database, model base, knowledge base and theirs management systems of RWISIDSS. The thought of using relational model and objected-oriented methods to unite to denote IDSS is put forward. And from theory aspects the definition and implement of relational model base is investigated. At last, the development method of RWISIDSS is discussed, while RWISIDSS is implemented partly.