| Songhuaba Reservoir is the main water source for Kunming city’s water supply, taking up more than half of the total supply with the daily output nearly450000m3. The water resource of Songhuaba Reservoir almost dried up due to the years of drought and the acceleration of urbanization of Kunming in recent years. The most prominent problems are water resource shortage, ecological environment deterioration, serious water pollution and others, including which climatic conditions and human activities are the main factors that affecting the water resource. Therefore, to research the influence caused by climate factors as rainfall and runoff" and human activities is significant.Based on Urban Water Resources Protection and Recovery Technology Study of the Plateau and Basin (serial No.:201101042), public welfare project of Ministry of Water Resources, considering comprehensively the influence of quicksand caused by rainfall, land use and cover in the basin, this thesis models the annual rainfall forecast model and AR (P) coupling prediction model under multi-scale of Songhuaba basin to make forecast analysis of the rainfall changed trend in the next ten years from2011to2020by the random theory analysis method, the wavelet analysis method and combined modeling method, combining with SWAT distributed hydro logical model, using the measured data rainfall runoff time series of Songhuaba basin supplied by Kunming City Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau, analyzing and studying the important characters of the long time annual rainfall runoff change such as Periodic, relevance, randomness and respectively and using the hydro meteorological measured data, and studies the influence to watershed runoff and sediment discharge under different land use situations by combing SWAT to establish distributed hydrological model which reflecting the characteristics of Songhuaba basin, which supply conference for the study and the policy making of the water resources sustainable development and controlling the water and soil loss. In summary, the main study content of this thesis is as follows:Testing the annual rainfall and runoff series tendency of Songhuaba Basin by Mann-kendall rank related inspection method; concluding the mutational site of rainfall and runoff by order gathering analysis method; testing the jump component of rainfall and runoff series by ranks and inspection method; identifying the periodic component by the variance spectral density change process of annual rainfall and runoff series.Studying the result that the annual rainfall is distributed extremely uneven, mainly concentrated on the flood season, and the annual runoff variety is larger with the biggest in1970.Showing that the rainfall and runoff in the major flood period controls the rainfall and runoff of the whole year basically by wavelet analysis method to study existed period in the long-term multiple time scale change of the annual rainfall and runoff of Songhuaba basin and making comparison with the cycle identified by variance spectrum density diagram.Setting up the soil database and meteorological database of Songhuaba basin’s SWAT model and simulating the hydrologic process with the rate of the simulation efficiency ENS reaches0.78and the validation period reaches0.72based on the Hydrology, meteorology, digital elevation image and remote sensing map and combined soil types and interpreted land use map.Discussing hydrological response under the land use and climate changing situation by the SWAT model with rate verified. The land use type is most benefit to the oil and water conservation currently (2010) with the climate situation unchanged in accordance with the interpreted5terms remote sensing image. The strength that land cover type to the deduction of water and sand is that the forest land is the first, second is the grass land and the last is farm land. Setting up the climate changing circumstance combined the simulating rainfall variation of the wavelet de-noising regression model, the annual runoff depth will be312,75mm and the annual sediment discharge will be38,134.74tons in2015under the land use type unchanged situations.
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