Power Market Stability And Its Risk Management

With the development of power market all over the world, the corresponding theories of power market stability are more and more needed for security operation and healthy development.Power market is largely different from other markets in nature, so that the existing methods and models for analyzing general economic dynamics are no more valid for power market. A reasonable mathematical model should be founded according to the characteristic of power market with re-defined state variables, in order to exactly reflect accumulated capital, investment, available generation capacity and transmission capacity, and reflect interactions between power market dynamics and power systems dynamics.The strong uncertainty is a prominent characteristic of competitive environment. The operation condition of power system was decided by market exchange. Such that system dispatchers have to be confronted with a lot of uncertainty factors, such as much energy exchange, unpredictable power flows and line loss, etc. The participants'pursuit for maximum individual profit makes power system more and more closer to critical state. The traditional deterministic criteria and probabilistic approaches cannot give economic quantitative value on account of not considering the loss resulted from faults. Risk was defined as the product of probability and consequence, so that it can coordinate stability and economy. Power market stability and its risk management were studied in this dissertation. The research work mainly includes:1. Reviews the research status about power market stability and then points out their shortcomings. The integrative risk idea of technology and economic was proposed by comparing among deterministic methods, probabilistic methods and risk methods.2. The main contents, essence and characteristics of power market were elaborated by catching on economical principles and physical laws.3. The measures of risk management were more definitely classified according to their mechanism. Risk problems in power system were analyzed from system plan aspect and system operating aspect. Risk problems in power market were summed up from generation, demand, exchange and security service. Then some deficiencies about these researches were pointed out in this dissertation.4. A novel method combining experimental economics and dynamic model of power market was presented to deal with power market simulation. Primary application was carried out on power market dynamic simulator, in order to validate the feasibility of proposed method.5. The stability margin, instability margin and stability domain were introduced to implement quantitative analyse for power market stability. Some useful control advice for California power market stability was provided by simulation and quantitative analyse. The three defense-lines of power market were presented. Space-time cooperative framework of defending crisis on power market was proposed in this dissertation.6. The available generation capacity can be divided into three sections, i.e. static inadequacy, dynamic risk adequacy and dynamic adequacy. Margins of static adequacy and dynamic adequacy are defined respectively; the effects of static and dynamic disturbances could be...