Uncertain Analytical Method Research And Application On Coast Dry Bulk Cargo Ships Transportation

Ship investment has momentous strategic significance for shipping enterprise. But shipping is progressing in changeful natural environment and capricious international social relations. Vessels and goods often are affected by perils of sea, politics disturbance and economic fluctuations, war and other factors. Therefore before investment decision carried out, not only needing to consider the shipping enterprise self economic influence, but also consider entire transportation system's synthetical economic results.On the other hand, along with time passing, it is inevitable that some old ships are eliminated, discarded or withdrawal service. And it is also inevitable that some new ships or new ship modes are supplemented to the fleet to maintain stable development. Above all are the problem that fleet develops will solve, whose core is to study fleet scale and structure.After having analyzed the existing literatures, this paper discovered that present work didn't consider uncertainty of business parameters and didn't consider ship's technology condition transformation with time passing when making ship investment and fleet plan.Therefore, the thesis is made of three major parts mainly. First part is analysis of uncertain transport business parameters; Second part is uncertain fleet plan; Third part is example application.The part of analyzing uncertain transport business parameters: Study circumstances and characteristic of ore and coal transport marketplace and analyze ship' price, freight, oil price and shipping time that have effect for economic target in evidence. And statistic, analyze and establish probability model to the collected data. Put forward an improved simulation anneal algorithm to distributes parameter in probability. And get probability distribution under certain confidence. On the basis establish expected value calculation model base on stochastic simulation and fuzzy simulation.The uncertain development fleet plan part is make up of four, five chapter mainly. Fourth chapter described important component of uncertain fleet plan---ships routing. This paper established mathematic model according to the characteristic of ships routing. And put forward improved PSO to solve chance-constrained programming base on stochastic simulation and fuzzy simulation.Fifth chapter studied the existing problem in tradition that cannot solve large-scale fleet plan or non-integer vessel number of the fleet. Base on above, this paper adopt intellectualized DPSO to solve large-scale uncertain multi-stage fleet plan problem.The applying part takes some coastal shipping Corp. ore and coal transport as example, making use of content of second chapter to fifth chapter to study fleet plan in future several years.